Crystal Palace defeat Nottingham Forest 3-1: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · Premier League · Nottingham Forest 1, Crystal Palace 3

Crystal Palace defeated Nottingham Forest 3–1 at Selhurst Park on Sunday, October 11. The home side won as a +178 underdog, and the match finished over the 2.5-goal total.

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace final score and match recap

Nottingham Forest took a 1–0 lead, but Crystal Palace scored twice before halftime to lead 2–1. The visitors' goal came from Dan Ndoye. Crystal Palace added a third goal in the second half to secure a 3–1 victory.

Did Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace go over or under the goals total?

The match produced four goals, finishing 1.5 goals over the 2.5 total. AiQ's Over 2.5 pick won.

How did AiQ's Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace predictions do?

AiQ finished 1–1 across graded picks.

AiQ backed the underdog Forest but Palace's upset victory cost the moneyline pick. The model correctly identified a high-scoring affair.

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace game prop results: both teams to score and draw no bet

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The three-way moneyline closed at Nottingham Forest +146, Draw +225, Crystal Palace +178. With vig removed, the implied probabilities were 38% for Forest, 33% for Palace, and 29% for a draw, representing a 7.4% bookmaker margin.

Palace, listed as the +178 underdog, won outright. A $100 bet on Palace returned $178 profit.

AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation on Forest at +160 (the best available price) showed −2.4%, indicating negative value despite the model's 38% win probability estimate—a 1-point edge over the market's 37% implied probability. The pick was mathematically unfavorable despite AiQ's slight preference for Forest.

Nottingham Forest enters this stretch at 1–2–3 (W–D–L) across six matches, with a 0–1–2 home record and 1–1–1 away. In five matches with recorded totals, they hit the over twice and the under three times. Their last five results read L, L, W, D, D—a two-match losing streak.

Crystal Palace sits at 2–1–3 (W–D–L) in six games, posting 1–0–2 at home and 1–1–1 away. Of five games with a closing total, three went over and two under. Their recent form is W, D, L, W, L.

What's next for Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace?

Nottingham Forest travels to Ipswich Town on Friday, October 23. Crystal Palace hosts Newcastle United on Sunday, October 25.