Arsenal defeat Nottingham Forest 1-0: Match Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 18, 2026 · Premier League · Arsenal 1, Nottingham Forest 0
Arsenal defeated Nottingham Forest 1–0 on Sunday, October 18 at The City Ground. Noni Madueke scored the decisive goal in the second half, assisted by Declan Rice, while the first half ended scoreless. The result covered the moneyline favorite but sent the total under 2.5 goals.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest final score and match recap
Arsenal won 1–0 with Madueke's second-half strike proving decisive. The first half produced no goals, leaving both sides level at 0–0. Nottingham Forest could not respond after Madueke's goal, and Arsenal held on for the clean sheet.
Did Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest go over or under the goals total?
The match finished under 2.5 goals with only one goal scored across both halves. The total fell 1.5 goals short of the line.
How did AiQ's Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest predictions do?
AiQ posted a 1–6 record across all graded picks for this fixture.
- Moneyline: Arsenal -198 – WIN (+$50.51 on a $100 bet)
- Total goals: Over 2.5 – LOSS
- Player props: 0–5 – LOSS ($–500 on $100 per pick)
AiQ correctly identified Arsenal as the winner but misjudged the low-scoring nature of the contest and failed on every player-prop selection.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest player prop results
AiQ went 0–5 on player props, losing $500 in total.
- Jurriën Timber to score anytime at +890 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Bruno Guimarães over 1.5 shots at +100 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Declan Rice to receive a card at +650 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Bruno Guimarães over 0.5 shots on target at +100 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Bruno Guimarães to score anytime at +475 – actual 0 – LOSS
All five selections fell short.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest game prop results: draw no bet and both teams to score
- Draw no bet: Arsenal cashed at -650.
- Both teams to score: No at -125.
Arsenal's clean sheet and single goal meant the draw-no-bet market rewarded the favorite, while Nottingham Forest's failure to score kept both-teams-to-score dead.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The three-way moneyline stood at Arsenal -198, Draw +313 and Nottingham Forest +575, implying win probabilities of 63 percent for Arsenal, 23 percent for a draw and 14 percent for Forest after removing the 5.5 percent vig. Arsenal's victory paid $50.51 on a $100 wager at -198.
AiQ's pre-match expected value for Arsenal was -2.8 percent at -160, meaning the model favored the side but deemed the offered price negative-EV. The market's implied 60 percent win probability matched AiQ's calibrated estimate, confirming alignment on likelihood but not on pricing.
Arsenal and Nottingham Forest betting trends: 2026-27 season
Arsenal sit at 6–0–1 in seven matches, unbeaten at home (3–0–0) and 3–0–1 away or on neutral sites. Their over/under record in five games with a recorded total stands at three overs and two unders. They have won two straight.
Nottingham Forest sit at 1–2–4 in seven matches, winless at home (0–1–3) and 1–1–1 away or on neutral sites. Their over/under record in five games with a recorded total is two overs and three unders. They have lost three straight.
What's next for Arsenal and Nottingham Forest?
Arsenal will host Everton on Saturday, October 24. Nottingham Forest travel to Ipswich Town on Friday, October 23.