Baltimore Ravens defeat Atlanta Falcons 30-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · NFL · Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23
The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Atlanta Falcons 30-23 on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, covering the +3.5 spread as underdogs. The game went over the 44-point total, finishing with 53 combined points.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons final score and game recap
Tyler Huntley completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns for Baltimore. Derrick Henry carried the ball 24 times for 102 yards. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 240 yards and one touchdown on 19 of 32 attempts for Atlanta, while Drake London caught seven passes for 118 yards.
Who covered the spread in Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons?
The Baltimore Ravens covered as +3.5 underdogs, winning by 7 points. The spread opened at Atlanta -3 and drifted to -3.5 by close, a half-point shift toward the Falcons. The Ravens' outright victory meant they covered regardless of the line movement.
Did Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons go over or under the total?
The game went over 44, finishing with 53 points—9 above the line. The total opened at 43.5 and moved up a half-point to 44.
How did AiQ's Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons predictions do?
AiQ finished 26-34 across all graded picks on this game.
- Moneyline: picked Atlanta Falcons at -174 – LOSS
- Player props: 26-33
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 26-33.
- Derrick Henry over 19.5 rushing attempts at -106 – WIN (24)
- Derrick Henry over 80.5 rushing yards at -114 – WIN (102)
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown at -150 – WIN (1)
- Justice Hill over 10.5 rushing yards at -120 – WIN (73)
- Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdown at +260 – LOSS (0)
- Michael Penix Jr. under 29.5 pass attempts at -126 – LOSS (32)
- Drake London over 81.5 receiving yards at -112 – WIN (118)
- Bijan Robinson over 18.5 rushing attempts at -117 – LOSS (17)
- Mark Andrews under 31.5 receiving yards at -113 – WIN (28)
- Brian Robinson Jr. over 35.5 rushing yards at -108 – LOSS (16)
- Bijan Robinson under 27.5 receiving yards at -112 – LOSS (32)
- Rashod Bateman over 17.5 receiving yards at -108 – WIN (62)
Derrick Henry's workload and production far exceeded his thresholds, while Bijan Robinson's rushing attempts fell just short of the over line.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- Baltimore Ravens team total 20.5: Over (paid -104); they scored 30
- Atlanta Falcons team total 23.5: Under (paid -111); they scored 23
- First-half total 20.5: Over (paid -115); 23 points were recorded
- First-quarter moneyline: Atlanta Falcons won the first quarter (paid -148)
- First-quarter total 7.5: Over (paid +102); 10 points were recorded
- First-half moneyline: Atlanta Falcons won the first half (paid -162)
- First-half spread: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 covered (paid -110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at Baltimore +145 and Atlanta -174, implying a 39 percent chance for the Ravens and 61 percent for the Falcons after vigorish removal. A $100 wager on Baltimore at +145 would have profited $145. AiQ's internal valuation placed the Falcons at 62 percent win probability, matching the market's implied probability after vig removal. However, the best available price at BetMGM was -165, representing negative expected value for the model's moneyline pick. The spread moved half a point toward Atlanta, closing at -3.5, yet the underdog covered anyway.
Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons betting trends: 2026 season
The Ravens improved to 4-1 overall with a 3-0 record on the road and 1-1 at home. They sit 2-3 against the spread in five games with recorded lines and have hit the over three times and the under twice. Baltimore has won three straight games.
They also sit 2-3 against the spread in five games and have gone over three times and under twice. Atlanta's last five results show one loss in the most recent three games.
What's next for Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons?
The Ravens will host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, October 25. The Falcons will host the San Francisco 49ers on the same day.