Pittsburgh Steelers defeat Indianapolis Colts 34-22: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 11, 2026 · NFL · Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34
Pittsburgh defeated Indianapolis 34–22, covering the -3 spread as a 12-point favorite. The game finished over 41.5, combining for 56 points.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers final score and game recap
The Steelers built early control, leading 7–6 after one quarter and extending to 17–13 at halftime. Indianapolis closed to 19–24 after three quarters, but Pittsburgh outscored the Colts 10–3 in the fourth quarter.
Aaron Rodgers completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns. Jaylen Warren rushed for 101 yards and a score. Daniel Jones went 24 of 44 for 267 yards without a touchdown, while Tyler Warren caught seven passes for 83 yards.
Who covered the spread in Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers?
Pittsburgh covered as a -3 favorite, winning by 12. The spread opened at -2.5 and moved to -3 as money shifted toward the Steelers.
Did Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers go over or under the total?
The game went over 41.5, finishing with 56 points—an over by 14.5. The total opened at 44.5 and closed at 41.5.
How did AiQ's Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers predictions do?
AiQ finished 31–28 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Picked Pittsburgh Steelers at -162 – WIN (+$61.73 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 30–28
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers player prop results
AiQ's player prop record was 30–28. Notable results:
- Daniel Jones over 2.5 rushing attempts at -159; actual 3 – WIN
- Tyler Warren over 4.5 receptions at -146; actual 7 – WIN
- Jaylen Warren over 22.5 receiving yards at -110; actual 87 – WIN
- Jonathan Taylor under 105.5 rush reception yards at -114; actual 82 – WIN
- Josh Downs under 54.5 receiving yards at -114; actual 47 – WIN
- Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown at -150; actual 0 – LOSS
- Alex Highsmith over 0.25 sacks at -114; actual 0 – LOSS
- Roman Wilson anytime touchdown at +310; actual 0 – LOSS
- Darnell Washington over 21.5 receiving yards at -113; actual 12 – LOSS
- DK Metcalf over 50.5 receiving yards at -110; actual 12 – LOSS
- Pat Freiermuth under 3.5 receptions at -154; actual 5 – LOSS
- Jonathan Taylor under 16.5 receiving yards at -113; actual 37 – LOSS
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- Indianapolis Colts team total 19.5: Over (paid -130); they scored 22
- Pittsburgh Steelers team total 22.5: Over (paid -115); they scored 34
- First-quarter moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers won (paid -125)
- First-quarter total 7.5: Over (paid +114); 13 points scored
- First-half moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers won (paid -142)
- First-half spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 covered (paid -110)
- First-half total 20.5: Over (paid -108); 30 points scored
Early scoring pace drove quarter and half totals over their lines. Both teams exceeded their team totals.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +135 | Pittsburgh Steelers -162
Sportsbook implied win probability (vig removed): Indianapolis Colts 41%, Pittsburgh Steelers 59%
Bookmaker margin (vig) on the moneyline: 4.4%
Pittsburgh's -162 line paid $61.73 on a $100 wager.
AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation at -152 (best available price) yielded -1.6% EV. The model's calibrated estimate matched the market's 59% probability, but the closing price was unfavorable. The spread moved half a point toward Pittsburgh, from -2.5 to -3, and the Steelers covered comfortably.
Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers betting trends: 2026 season
Indianapolis sits 2–3 overall: 1–1 at home, 1–2 on the road. They are 3–2 against the spread in five games with recorded lines and have hit the over three times and the under twice. Their last five results: L, W, W, L, L.
Pittsburgh is 3–2 overall: 3–0 at home, 0–2 away. They are also 3–2 against the spread in five games with recorded lines and have gone over three times and under twice. Their recent stretch: W, L, W, L, W.
What's next for Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers?
The Colts travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings on Sunday, October 25. The Steelers head to New Orleans for a matchup with the Saints on the same day.