New England Patriots defeat Buffalo Bills 29-26: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sun, Oct 4, 2026 · NFL · New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 26
The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 29-26 on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium. The New England Patriots covered the spread as 7-point underdogs. The game went over the closing total of 49.5, with 55 points combined. AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost, and its player props went 28-44.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills final score and game recap
The New England Patriots led 7-0 after the first quarter. The Buffalo Bills won the second quarter 17-7 to lead 17-14 at halftime. The New England Patriots outscored the Buffalo Bills 15-9 in the second half. They came back from a 3-point halftime deficit.
The leading performers, from the box score:
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): 22/37 passing for 269 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception.
- Romeo Doubs (New England Patriots): 6 catches for 58 yards, 2 receiving touchdowns.
- Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills): 6 catches for 116 yards, 1 receiving touchdown.
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): 23/33 passing for 253 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception.
Who covered the spread in New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills?
The New England Patriots covered the spread as 7-point underdogs and won outright, by 3 points.
The spread opened at Buffalo Bills -6.5 and closed at Buffalo Bills -7.
Did New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills go over or under the total?
The game went over: 55 points combined against a closing total of 49.5, over by 5.5. 31 of the 55 points came in the first half.
The total opened at 48.5 and closed at 49.5.
How did AiQ's New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills predictions do?
AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost, and its player props went 28-44.
- Moneyline: the Buffalo Bills to win at -345, a loss (-$100 on a $100 bet).
- Player props: 28-44.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills player prop results
AiQ's player prop picks went 28-44 in this game.
- Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills): under 37.5 receiving yards at -110, finished with 82, a loss.
- DJ Moore (Buffalo Bills): over 49.5 receiving yards at -114, finished with 11, a loss.
- Greg Rousseau (Buffalo Bills): over 0.75 sacks at -184, finished with 0, a loss.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots): under 17.5 receiving yards at -113, finished with 27, a loss.
- Romeo Doubs (New England Patriots): over 39.5 receiving yards at -110, finished with 58, a win.
- Joshua Palmer (Buffalo Bills): to score a touchdown at +550, a loss.
- Keon Coleman (Buffalo Bills): over 13.5 receiving yards at -114, finished with 116, a win.
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): under 260.5 passing + rushing yards at -112, finished with 323, a loss.
- Mack Hollins (New England Patriots): over 40.5 receiving yards at -113, finished with 53, a win.
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): under 27.5 rushing yards at -109, finished with 54, a loss.
- James Cook III (Buffalo Bills): to score a touchdown at -140, a win.
- Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills): over 47.5 receiving yards at -110, finished with 7, a loss.
- 60 more picks are in the record above but not listed.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills game prop results: first quarter, first half and team totals
AiQ does not pick game props. This is how the sportsbook markets settled.
- First-quarter moneyline: New England Patriots won the first quarter, paying +164.
- First-quarter total 9.5: the under, paying +105, with 7 points scored.
- First-half moneyline: Buffalo Bills won the first half, paying -245.
- Buffalo Bills team total 28.5: the under, paying -113, with 26 scored.
- New England Patriots team total 20.5: the over, paying -115, with 29 scored.
- First-half spread: New England Patriots +4.5 covered, paying -120.
- First-half total 24.5: the over, paying -102, with 31 points scored.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Shortly before the start, the consensus moneyline had the New England Patriots at +260 and the Buffalo Bills at -335. With the bookmaker's margin removed, that made the Buffalo Bills a 73% favorite. The New England Patriots won as the underdog at +260: $260 profit on a $100 bet. On AiQ's moneyline pick, the Buffalo Bills, the best price before the game was -325 at Caesars: priced below fair (−2.0% value).
The spread moved toward the Buffalo Bills between the open and the close, and the New England Patriots covered. The total moved up from 48.5 to 49.5, and the game went over.
New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills betting trends: 2026 season
This result left the New England Patriots 2-2 in the 2026 regular season (1-0 at home, 1-2 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 2 of 4 games with a closing line on file, with 1 push. Their games went over the closing total 1 time and under 3 times.
This result left the Buffalo Bills 3-1 in the 2026 regular season (2-1 at home, 1-0 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 3 of 4 games with a closing line on file. Their games went over the closing total 3 times and under 1 time.
What's next for New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills?
Next for the New England Patriots: the Las Vegas Raiders at home on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Next for the Buffalo Bills: at the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, October 12, 2026.