Missouri State Bears defeat Lindenwood Lions 48-14: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Lindenwood Lions 14, Missouri State Bears 48

Missouri State dominated Lindenwood, 48–14, covering the -16.5 spread with ease. The game went over the 53.5 total, finishing at 62 points.

Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears final score and game recap

Missouri State scored 14 points in the first quarter while holding Lindenwood scoreless. The Bears added 20 unanswered points in the second to reach 34–0 at halftime. Lindenwood scored a touchdown in the third quarter, but Missouri State answered with 14 more points to extend the lead to 48–7. The Lions added a second touchdown in the fourth quarter, leaving the final score at 48–14.

Who covered the spread in Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears?

Missouri State covered the -16.5 spread, winning by 34 points. The line opened at -20 and softened to -16.5 as money moved toward Lindenwood. AiQ had taken Lindenwood at +16.5 with 58% confidence and graded the pick as a loss.

Did Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears go over or under the total?

The game went over the 53.5 total by 8.5 points, finishing at 62. The total opened at 53 and rose 0.5 points to 53.5. AiQ selected Over 53.5 with 57% confidence, a winning pick.

How did AiQ's Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears predictions do?

AiQ finished 2–1 across the three graded markets.

AiQ correctly identified the Bears as the outright winner and the total to exceed the line, but missed the spread by backing the underdog when the favorite outperformed expectations.

Lindenwood Lions vs. Missouri State Bears odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline listed Lindenwood at +605 and Missouri State at -883, implying a 14% chance for the Lions and an 86% chance for the Bears after vig removal. The bookmaker's margin sat at 4.0%. Missouri State's -883 line paid $11.33 on a $100 stake. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the Bears at -4.8% with a -850 price, indicating the market price was slightly unfavorable despite the model favoring the team. The spread shifted 3.5 points toward Lindenwood, yet the Bears still covered.

Lindenwood sits 0–1 overall, 0–1 away/neutral, 0–1 against the spread, and 1–0 on the over/under. Missouri State is 1–1 overall, 1–0 at home and 0–1 away/neutral, with a 1–0 record against the spread and 1–0 on the over/under.

What's next for Lindenwood Lions and Missouri State Bears?

Lindenwood travels to Eastern Michigan on Saturday, September 26. Missouri State hosts Marshall on Saturday, September 19.