Marshall Thundering Herd defeat Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 28-26: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 26, Marshall Thundering Herd 28

Marshall Thundering Herd defeated Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 28–26 on Saturday, September 12 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium. Middle Tennessee covered the 12.5-point spread as an underdog, while the game finished under the 55.5 total at 54 combined points.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Marshall Thundering Herd final score and game recap

The teams traded early scores to open 7–7, then Marshall edged ahead 14–13 by halftime. Middle Tennessee took its only lead of the second half at 20–14 after three quarters. Marshall outscored the Blue Raiders 14–6 in the fourth to secure the two-point win.

Who covered the spread in Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Marshall Thundering Herd?

Middle Tennessee covered as a 12.5-point underdog. The line opened at Marshall –13.5 and softened one point to –12.5, moving in the Blue Raiders' favor. AiQ's pick of Middle Tennessee +12.5 at 59% confidence graded as a WIN.

Did Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Marshall Thundering Herd go over or under the total?

The game went under 55.5, finishing at 54 points. The total opened at 57 and declined 1.5 points to 55.5. AiQ's over pick at 55.5 with 58% confidence resulted in a LOSS.

How did AiQ's Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Marshall Thundering Herd predictions do?

AiQ finished 2–1 across the three graded markets.

AiQ correctly identified the favorite winning outright and the underdog covering the spread, but missed on the total.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Marshall Thundering Herd odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The moneyline stood at Middle Tennessee +388 and Marshall –517, implying a 20% win probability for Middle Tennessee and 80% for Marshall after removing vigorish of 4.3%. A $100 wager on Marshall at –517 returned $19.34. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the Marshall line at –490, representing a –3.4% edge—an unfavorable price despite the model favoring the side. The spread drifted one point toward Middle Tennessee, and that side ultimately covered.

Middle Tennessee stands 1–1 overall with a 1–0 home record and 0–1 away. Against the spread in two games with a recorded closing line, the Blue Raiders are 2–0. Their total record is 0–2, both games hitting the under.

Marshall also sits 1–1 overall, 1–0 at home and 0–1 away. The Thundering Herd are 0–2 against the spread in two games with a closing line and 0–2 on the over/under, with both contests finishing under.

What's next for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Marshall Thundering Herd?

Middle Tennessee hosts Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday, September 19. Marshall travels to face Missouri State Bears the same day.