Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 7
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · NCAAF
Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.
Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies is on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Liberty Flames 32, New Mexico State Aggies 16. That is an average, not a pick.
The story
The Liberty Flames have won 7 of their 8 games this season, winning the last seven. The New Mexico State Aggies have won 3 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five. The New Mexico State Aggies come in with more rest: their last game was on October 28, ten days before this one, while the Liberty Flames played seven days before. When these teams last met, on October 14, 2025, the Liberty Flames won 30-27 at home.
Matchups to watch
- An uphill climb in scoring. The New Mexico State Aggies averaged 21.5 points per game this season, the 26th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Liberty Flames allowed 13.5 points per game, the 7th fewest.
Moneyline
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Liberty Flames an 88.5% chance to beat New Mexico State Aggies. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -800 at BetMGM, is priced near the fair price of -769 (−0.4% value).
Total
The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 46.5 points at 49.7% and the under at 50.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 47.3 points, sits on the 46.5 line.
Spread
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Liberty Flames -16.5 a 51.4% chance to cover and New Mexico State Aggies +16.5 48.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play
Against the spread, the records lean toward the Liberty Flames. The Liberty Flames covered the spread in 6 straight games. The New Mexico State Aggies failed to cover the spread in 4 of 5 games as underdogs this season.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.