UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 7
Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET · Centennial Bank Stadium · NCAAF
Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.
UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves is on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Centennial Bank Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is UL Monroe Warhawks 20, Arkansas State Red Wolves 35. That is an average, not a pick.
The story
The UL Monroe Warhawks have won 1 of their 8 games this season, winning one of the last five. The Arkansas State Red Wolves have won 4 of their 8 games this season, winning three of the last five. The Arkansas State Red Wolves come in with more rest: their last game was on October 24, 14 days before this one, while the UL Monroe Warhawks played seven days before.
Matchups to watch
- Weakness against weakness on the ground. The UL Monroe Warhawks averaged 121.8 rushing yards per game this season, the 27th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Arkansas State Red Wolves allowed 195.5 rushing yards per game, the 11th most.
Moneyline
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Arkansas State Red Wolves an 86.2% chance to beat UL Monroe Warhawks. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -650 at BetMGM, is priced below the fair price of -626 (−0.5% value).
Total
The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 53.5 points at 49.8% and the under at 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 54.4 points, sits on the 53.5 line.
Spread
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives UL Monroe Warhawks +14.5 a 49.8% chance to cover and Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5 50.2%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play
Recent results against the spread back the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The UL Monroe Warhawks failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 8 games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.