Arkansas State Red Wolves defeat Southern Miss Golden Eagles 23-13: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Arkansas State Red Wolves 23, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 13
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated Southern Miss Golden Eagles 23–13, covering the -5.5 spread while the game finished under the 61.5 total.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles final score and game recap
Arkansas State controlled Saturday's matchup at M. M. Roberts Stadium, building a 16–7 halftime lead and holding on for a 23–13 victory. The Red Wolves scored in three of four quarters—6 points in the first, 10 in the second, and 7 in the fourth—while Southern Miss scored 6 in the second half.
Clay carried 10 times for 30 yards and a rushing touchdown. Southern Miss's Landry Lyddy threw for 208 yards but was intercepted twice, while Steven Robinson led the Eagles' rushing attack with 21 carries for 84 yards and a score.
Who covered the spread in Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles?
Arkansas State Red Wolves covered the -5.5 spread. The Wolves won by 10 points, exceeding the line by 4.5. The spread opened at Southern Miss +7 and closed at +5.5, with money moving 1.5 points toward the Eagles over the course of the week.
Did Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles go over or under the total?
The game finished under the 61.5 total with 36 combined points. Arkansas State scored 23 and Southern Miss 13, leaving the total 25.5 points short of the line. The total opened at 62.5 and moved down 1 point to 61.5.
How did AiQ's Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles predictions do?
AiQ finished 1–4 on this contest.
- Moneyline: Arkansas State Red Wolves at -211 — WIN (+$47.39 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 0–4 — LOSS
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles player prop results
AiQ went 0–4 on player props, losing $400 on $100 stakes each.
- Mario Sanders (Southern Miss Golden Eagles) anytime touchdown at -105; actual 0 — LOSS
- Trey Owens (Arkansas State Red Wolves) anytime touchdown at -160; actual 0 — LOSS
- Solomon Baggett (Arkansas State Red Wolves) anytime touchdown at -185; actual 0 — LOSS
- Hunter Summers (Arkansas State Red Wolves) anytime touchdown at +125; actual 0 — LOSS
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half
- Arkansas State Red Wolves team total 33.5: Under (paid -102); they scored 23
- First-quarter total 13.5: Under (paid +120); 6 points scored
- First-quarter moneyline: Arkansas State Red Wolves won the quarter (paid -145)
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles team total 27.5: Under (paid -104); they scored 13
- First-half spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5 covered (paid -105)
- First-half moneyline: Arkansas State Red Wolves won the half (paid -185)
- First-half total 31.5: Under (paid -122); 23 points scored
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at Arkansas State -211 and Southern Miss +174, implying a 65% win probability for Arkansas State after vig removal (35% for Southern Miss). The bookmaker's vig was 4.3%. A $100 wager on Arkansas State paid $47.39 on the win. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the moneyline was –2.7% at -218, indicating the closing price was slightly unfavorable despite alignment with the model's 67% confidence level. The market moved modestly toward Southern Miss over the week, yet the Wolves still covered.
Arkansas State Red Wolves and Southern Miss Golden Eagles betting trends: 2026 season
Arkansas State Red Wolves sit at 3–4 overall, 2–1 at home and 1–3 away/neutral. They are 3–4 against the spread in seven games with a recorded closing line, and their over/under record is 3 overs and 4 unders. Their last five results: W, L, L, W, L.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 1–5 overall, 1–2 at home and 0–3 away/neutral. They are 2–4 against the spread in six games, and their over/under split is 3 overs and 3 unders. Southern Miss has lost five consecutive games.
What's next for Arkansas State Red Wolves and Southern Miss Golden Eagles?
Arkansas State will host Georgia State Panthers on Saturday, October 24. Southern Miss will host Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns on the same day.