Troy Trojans defeat Alabama State Hornets 34-17: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Alabama State Hornets 17, Troy Trojans 34

Troy Trojans won 34–17 on Saturday, September 12 at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Alabama State Hornets covered the spread as a 23.5-point underdog, and the total finished under 52.5.

Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy Trojans final score and game recap

The Trojans scored 14 points in the first quarter and 17 more in the second, building a 31–7 halftime lead that rendered the second half academic. Alabama State answered with a 10-point third quarter to trim the margin to 34–17, but neither team scored in the fourth. The game ended exactly as it stood after three quarters.

Who covered the spread in Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy Trojans?

Alabama State covered as a 23.5-point underdog, losing by 17 instead of the projected 23.5. Troy entered as a 23-point favorite; late money moved the line to -23.5, but the Trojans' margin of victory fell short. AiQ's spread pick—Troy Trojans -23.5 at 59% confidence—lost.

Did Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy Trojans go over or under the total?

The game finished at 51 points, one and a half under the 52.5 total. Troy's 31 first-half points suggested a high-scoring affair, but Alabama State's third-quarter burst (10 points) and a scoreless fourth quarter kept the combined total just shy of the line. AiQ's Under 52.5 pick at 60% confidence won.

How did AiQ's Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy Trojans predictions do?

AiQ finished 2–1 across graded markets:

The model correctly identified Troy as the stronger team and accurately projected a low-scoring second half, but overestimated the margin of victory.

Alabama State Hornets vs. Troy Trojans odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The moneyline closed at Troy -2133 and Alabama State +1087, implying a 92% win probability for Troy after removing the 3.9% vig. A $100 wager on the Trojans returned $4.69. AiQ's pre-game moneyline estimate was -2000, which carried -3.3% expected value—the model favored Troy but not at the offered price. The spread opened at Troy -23 and drifted half a point toward the favorite, yet the underdog still covered.

Alabama State is 0–1 overall, 0–1 on the road, and 1–0 against the spread in its only game with a recorded line. The Hornets are 0–1 in total outcomes.

Troy improved to 2–0, both wins at home. The Trojans are 0–2 against the spread in two games with closing lines and 0–2 in total outcomes (both unders). Troy has won two straight.

What's next for Alabama State Hornets and Troy Trojans?

Troy travels to face Missouri Tigers on Saturday, September 19. Alabama State's next opponent has not been announced.