Liberty Flames defeat Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 24-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 23, Liberty Flames 24

Liberty Flames edged Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 24–23 on Saturday at Williams Stadium. The Bulldogs covered the 28.5-point spread despite the loss, and the combined 47 points fell under the 55-point total.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames final score and game recap

Gardner-Webb controlled the first half. Liberty opened with 14 points in the first quarter to Gardner-Webb's 6, but the Bulldogs answered with 14 second-quarter points while holding the Flames to a field goal, taking a 20–17 halftime lead. A quiet third quarter saw Gardner-Webb add a field goal to stretch the margin to 23–17. Liberty scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter to win 24–23.

Who covered the spread in Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames?

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs covered the spread. Liberty entered as a 28.5-point favorite but won by only one point, so the Bulldogs beat the line despite losing the game. The spread opened at Liberty –26 and drifted 2.5 points toward the Flames, closing at –28.5. AiQ's spread pick matched the closing line at Liberty –28.5 with 59% confidence and graded as a loss.

Did Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames go over or under the total?

The game went under the 55-point total, finishing at 47 points. Scoring was modest each quarter, never approaching the 55-point mark. AiQ's pick was Under 55.5 with 57% confidence, which was a winning selection.

How did AiQ's Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames predictions do?

AiQ posted a 2–1 record across the graded markets.

The model nailed the moneyline and total but missed the spread, overestimating the Flames' margin of victory.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The sportsbook listed Gardner-Webb at +1867 and Liberty at –4750, implying a 5% win probability for the Bulldogs and 95% for the Flames after vig removal. The vig was 3.0%. Liberty's win paid $2.11 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game moneyline expected value was –3.3% at –4500, indicating the price was negative-EV despite the model's high confidence. The spread drifted 2.5 points toward Liberty, aligning with market sentiment, while the underdog covered the line.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs are 0–1 overall, 0–1 away/neutral, 1–0 against the spread, and 0–1 on the over/under. Their lone game shows they have already covered a spread larger than the market set.

Liberty Flames sit 1–1 overall, 1–0 at home, 0–1 away/neutral, 0–2 against the spread, and 0–2 on the over/under. Both of their games have gone under the total, and they have failed to cover the spread in both games.

What's next for Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs and Liberty Flames?

Gardner-Webb travels to face Marshall Thundering Herd on Saturday, September 26. Liberty returns home to host Ball State Cardinals on Saturday, September 19.