Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 11

Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · NCAAF

Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.

Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas is on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Sacramento State Hornets 14, Central Michigan Chippewas 31. That is an average, not a pick.

The story

The Sacramento State Hornets have won 2 of their 10 games this season, winning one of the last five. The Central Michigan Chippewas have won 4 of their 9 games this season, winning two of the last five.

Matchups to watch

• An uphill climb through the air. The Sacramento State Hornets averaged 191.1 passing yards per game this season, the 30th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Central Michigan Chippewas allowed 171.6 passing yards per game, the 13th fewest.
• An uphill climb through the air. The Central Michigan Chippewas averaged 129.0 passing yards per game this season, the 5th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Sacramento State Hornets allowed 182.5 passing yards per game, the 21st fewest.

Moneyline

The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Central Michigan Chippewas a 90.5% chance to beat Sacramento State Hornets. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -1000 at Caesars, is priced near the fair price of -955 (−0.4% value).

Total

The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 43.5 points at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 44.7 points, comes from the same market prices, so it adds nothing to them.

Spread

The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Sacramento State Hornets +18 a 50.1% chance to cover and Central Michigan Chippewas -18 49.9%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.

Trends in play

Everything points under on the total. The Central Michigan Chippewas went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games (1 push). The Sacramento State Hornets went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.

Recent results against the spread back the Central Michigan Chippewas. The Central Michigan Chippewas covered the spread in 4 of 5 home games this season.

These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.