Ball State Cardinals defeat Bowling Green Falcons 32-31: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Ball State Cardinals 32, Bowling Green Falcons 31
Ball State Cardinals defeated Bowling Green Falcons 32–31 on Saturday, October 17 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, covering the +6.5 spread and going over the total of 46.5.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons final score and game recap
Ball State opened with a 3–0 first-quarter lead before Bowling Green answered with 10 second-quarter points to tie at halftime, 10–10. The Cardinals broke through in the third, scoring seven unanswered points to reach 17–10. The fourth quarter turned into a shootout: Bowling Green scored 14 while Ball State added seven, forcing overtime at 24–24. In the extra period, Ball State scored eight points while Bowling Green scored seven, sealing the 32–31 victory.
Keldric Luster led the ground game with 17 carries for 125 yards and a rushing touchdown. TJ Horton contributed 16 carries for 81 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Jay Kastantin threw for 215 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Brennan Ridley caught two passes for 84 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons?
Ball State Cardinals covered as the +6.5 underdog, winning outright by one point. The spread did not move from open to close at Bowling Green Falcons –6.5.
Did Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons go over or under the total?
The game went over the 46.5 total, finishing at 63 points—16.5 points over. The total opened at 47.5 and slid to 46.5.
How did AiQ's Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons predictions do?
AiQ finished 1–2 across every graded pick.
- Moneyline: picked Bowling Green Falcons –236 – LOSS
- Player props: 1–1 – one win, one loss
AiQ got the total right but missed the moneyline.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 1–1, netting –$33.33 on $100 per pick.
- TJ Horton (Ball State Cardinals) anytime touchdown at –150; actual 2 touchdowns – WIN
- Jalen Bonds (Ball State Cardinals) anytime touchdown at +220; actual 0 touchdowns – LOSS
Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- Ball State Cardinals team total 20.5: Over (paid –104); they scored 32.
- First-half moneyline: tied, bets refunded.
- First-quarter total 9.5: Under (paid –105); only 3 points were scored.
- First-half spread: Ball State Cardinals +3.5 covered (paid –110).
- Bowling Green Falcons team total 26.5: Over (paid –122); they scored 31.
- First-quarter moneyline: Ball State Cardinals won the first quarter (paid +154).
- First-half total 23.5: Under (paid –115); 20 points were scored.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Bowling Green Falcons odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Closing moneyline: Ball State Cardinals +193, Bowling Green Falcons –236. Sportsbook implied win probability (vig removed): Ball State Cardinals 33%, Bowling Green Falcons 67%. Bookmaker margin (vig) on the moneyline: 4.4%. The Cardinals won outright, paying $193 on a $100 wager. AiQ's calibrated estimate matched the market's vig-free probability at 69%, but the best available price was –235, a negative-EV price of –2.1%.
Ball State Cardinals and Bowling Green Falcons betting trends: 2026 season
Ball State Cardinals are 2–5 overall: 1–1 at home, 1–4 away/neutral. Against the spread in six games they are 3–3. In six games with a total line they are 5–1 to the over. Their last five results are W, L, L, L, L.
Bowling Green Falcons are also 2–5 overall: 1–3 at home, 1–2 away/neutral. Against the spread in seven games they are 3–4. In seven games with a total line they are 5–2 to the over. Their last five results are L, W, W, L, L.
What's next for Ball State Cardinals and Bowling Green Falcons?
Ball State Cardinals will host Sacramento State Hornets on Saturday, October 24. Bowling Green Falcons travel to face the Buffalo Bulls on the same day.