Buffalo Bulls defeat Toledo Rockets 23-8: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8
Buffalo defeated Toledo 23–8 on Saturday at the Glass Bowl, covering the +19 spread while the total fell short of 54.5.
Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets final score and game recap
Buffalo built a shutout through three quarters and never trailed. The Bulls scored 6 points in the first quarter, 7 in the second to reach 13–0 at halftime, then added 3 points in the third for a 16–0 lead. Toledo scored 8 points in the fourth quarter; Buffalo added 7 points to close at 23–8.
Messiah Burch carried the Buffalo ground game with 17 carries for 137 yards and a rushing touchdown. Quarterback Jason Wright completed 14 of 31 passes for 171 yards without a turnover. For Toledo, John Alan Richter went 22 of 35 for 203 yards, also turnover-free, while Connor Walendzak rushed 10 times for 50 yards and a touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets?
Buffalo covered as a +19 underdog, winning by 15 points. The spread opened at Toledo –21 and closed at –19, with money shifting 2 points toward Buffalo during the week.
Did Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets go over or under the total?
The game finished well under 54.5, with 31 combined points. Buffalo's 6–7–3–7 scoring pattern and Toledo's 0–0–0–8 kept both halves and early quarters far below their projected totals.
How did AiQ's Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets predictions do?
AiQ finished 2–5 on the game overall.
- Moneyline: picked Toledo Rockets at –1233 – LOSS
- Player props: 2–4 – LOSS
Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets player prop results
AiQ went 2–4 on player props, netting a loss of $232.22 at $100 per pick.
- Connor Walendzak anytime touchdown –360, actual 1 – WIN
- Adjatay Dabbs anytime touchdown +120, actual 0 – LOSS
- Daryl Barnett Jr. anytime touchdown +400, actual 0 – LOSS
- CJ Miller anytime touchdown –255, actual 0 – LOSS
- Bryson Hammer anytime touchdown +230, actual 0 – LOSS
- Messiah Burch anytime touchdown +140, actual 1 – WIN
Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets game prop results: first half, team totals and first quarter
- First-half moneyline: Buffalo Bulls won the first half (+455)
- Toledo Rockets team total 37.5: Under (paid –120); they scored 8
- First-quarter total 13.5: Under (paid –125); 6 points were scored
- First-quarter moneyline: Buffalo Bulls won the first quarter (+310)
- Buffalo Bulls team total 17.5: Over (paid +102); they scored 23
- First-half spread: Buffalo Bulls +10.5 covered (paid –108)
- First-half total 28.5: Under (paid –112); 13 points were scored
Buffalo's early scoring and Toledo's scoreless first three quarters kept quarter and half totals well below the lines, while Buffalo's full-game total cleared 17.5.
Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Buffalo opened at +750 and Toledo at –1233, implying an 11% win probability for Buffalo and 89% for Toledo after removing the 4.3% vig. Buffalo's victory paid $750 on a $100 wager. The spread softened from –21 to –19, reflecting money moving toward Buffalo, the side that ultimately covered.
Buffalo Bulls and Toledo Rockets betting trends: 2026 season
Buffalo sits 3–3 overall, 2–1 at home and 1–2 away. Against the spread in six games with a recorded line, the Bulls are 2–4; over/under they are 3–3. Their last five games read W, L, W, L, L.
Toledo is 4–2 overall, 3–1 at home and 1–1 away. They are 2–3–1 against the spread and 5–1 over/under in six games with lines. Their recent stretch is L, W, W, W, W.
What's next for Buffalo Bulls and Toledo Rockets?
Buffalo hosts Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday, October 24. Toledo hosts Western Michigan Broncos the same day.