New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 6
Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET · Mackay Stadium · NCAAF
Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.
New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack is on Friday, November 6, 2026, at Mackay Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is New Mexico Lobos 24, Nevada Wolf Pack 14. That is an average, not a pick.
The story
The New Mexico Lobos have won 7 of their 8 games this season, winning the last five. The Nevada Wolf Pack have won 3 of their 8 games this season, winning two of the last five.
Matchups to watch
- An uphill climb through the air. The New Mexico Lobos averaged 148.0 passing yards per game this season, the 8th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Nevada Wolf Pack allowed 156.9 passing yards per game, the 8th fewest.
- An uphill climb in total yards. The Nevada Wolf Pack averaged 336.0 yards per game this season, the 25th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the New Mexico Lobos allowed 258.1 yards per game, tied for the 4th fewest.
Moneyline
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Mexico Lobos a 78.2% chance to beat Nevada Wolf Pack. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The price on record, -375, is priced below the fair price of -359 (−0.9% value).
Total
The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 37 points at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 37.9 points, sits on the 37 line.
Spread
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives New Mexico Lobos -9.5 a 50.5% chance to cover and Nevada Wolf Pack +9.5 49.5%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play
Recent results against the spread back the New Mexico Lobos. The New Mexico Lobos covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
Recent totals lean under. The New Mexico Lobos went under the total in 7 of their last 10 games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.