North Dakota State Bison defeat Nevada Wolf Pack 31-17: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Nevada Wolf Pack 17, North Dakota State Bison 31
North Dakota State defeated Nevada 31-17 at the Fargodome, covering the -14.5 spread while the game cleared the 43-point total at 48 combined points.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison final score and game recap
Both teams were scoreless in the first quarter, but North Dakota State broke through with 19 points in the second to lead 19-11 at halftime. Nevada scored 6 points in the third to reach 17, while North Dakota State scored 7 in the fourth to finish with 31.
Nathan Hayes led the Bison offense with 19 completions on 25 attempts for 153 yards and two passing touchdowns, plus 42 yards and a rushing touchdown on eight carries. For Nevada, AJ Bianco completed 17 of 34 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Gary Givens III caught three passes for 50 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison?
Nevada covered as a +14.5 underdog, losing by exactly 14 points. The spread closed at North Dakota State -14.5 with no movement.
Did Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison go over or under the total?
The game went over 43, finishing at 48 points—five points above the line. The first half produced 30 points (19-11), and the second half added 18 more. The total opened at 42.5 and moved up half a point to 43.
How did AiQ's Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison predictions do?
AiQ finished 2-3 on this game.
- Moneyline: North Dakota State Bison at -687 – WIN (+$14.56 on a $100 bet)
- Spread: Nevada Wolf Pack +14.5 – WIN
- Total: Over 43 – WIN
- Player props: 1-3 – LOSS (net -$204.76)
The model nailed the moneyline, spread, and total but went 1-3 on player props.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison player prop results
AiQ went 1-3 on player props, losing $204.76 on $100 stakes per pick.
- Dominic Kelley (Nevada Wolf Pack) anytime touchdown at +110 – 0 – LOSS
- Herschel Turner (Nevada Wolf Pack) anytime touchdown at +140 – 0 – LOSS
- Nathan Hayes (North Dakota State Bison) anytime touchdown at -105 – 1 – WIN
- Myles Mitchell (North Dakota State Bison) anytime touchdown at -170 – 0 – LOSS
Only Hayes hit his line.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison game prop results: first half, team totals and first quarter
- First-half moneyline: North Dakota State Bison won the first half (paid -425)
- North Dakota State Bison team total 28.5: Over (paid -106); they scored 31
- First-half total 22.5: Over (paid -120); 30 points were scored in the half
- First-quarter moneyline: tied, bets refunded
- Nevada Wolf Pack team total 13.5: Over (paid -128); they scored 17
- First-quarter total 9.5: Under (paid -110); 0 points were scored in the quarter
- First-half spread: North Dakota State Bison -7.5 covered (paid -112)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. North Dakota State Bison odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at Nevada +497 and North Dakota State -687, implying an 84% win probability for the Bison after removing the 4.0% vig. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the Bison at -650, a -0.5% EV price—the market price was slightly too steep for the model's 86% calibrated win probability. The total opened at 42.5 and closed at 43, moving up half a point.
Nevada Wolf Pack and North Dakota State Bison betting trends: 2026 season
Nevada sits at 2-4 overall with a 4-2 against-the-spread record in six games with a closing spread. Their over-under record is even at 3-3. They are 1-2 at home and 1-2 away or at neutral sites. Their last five games read L, W, L, L, L.
North Dakota State improved to 6-1 overall and is unbeaten at home (4-0) with a 2-1 road record. They are 3-4 against the spread in seven games and have gone under five times while going over twice. Their recent stretch reads W, L, W, W, W.
What's next for Nevada Wolf Pack and North Dakota State Bison?
Nevada hosts San José State on Saturday, October 24. North Dakota State plays at New Mexico on Saturday, October 24.