Air Force Falcons defeat Northern Illinois Huskies 28-7: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7

Air Force defeated Northern Illinois 28–7 on Saturday, October 10 at Huskie Stadium. The Falcons covered the -7 spread and the game finished under the 48.5 total.

Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies final score and game recap

Evan Medders rushed 16 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns, while Owen Allen added 13 carries for 100 yards and two more scores. Air Force led 7–0 after the first quarter and extended their lead to 14–7 by halftime. Air Force took control in the third quarter, outscoring the Huskies 14–0 to reach 28–7. The fourth quarter produced no scoring.

For Northern Illinois, DeAree Rogers caught seven passes for 81 yards and Telly Johnson Jr. rushed eight times for 47 yards and one touchdown—the Huskies' only score.

Who covered the spread in Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies?

Air Force covered the -7 spread decisively, winning by 21 points. The line opened at Northern Illinois +7.5 and closed at +7, with late money shifting toward the underdog. The Falcons' margin of victory far exceeded the closing number.

Did Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies go over or under the total?

The game went under the 48.5 total, finishing with 35 combined points. The total opened at 46.5 and moved up 2 points to 48.5, leaving the final score 13.5 points shy of the line.

How did AiQ's Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies predictions do?

AiQ finished 2–5 across every graded pick. The model won on the moneyline (Air Force Falcons at -289, +$34.60 on a $100 bet) but went 1–5 on player props for a loss of $462.96.

Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies player prop results

AiQ went 1–5 on player props. Only Telly Johnson Jr.'s anytime touchdown at -270 hit; five other selections missed:

Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half

Air Force Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Air Force at -289 and Northern Illinois at +233, implying a 71% win probability for the Falcons after vigorish removal. The vig was 4.3%. AiQ's internal model priced Air Force at -275, a -0.2% edge—negative expected value. The market's implied probability of 73% matched AiQ's calibrated estimate, but the sportsbook did not offer the model's target price. The spread shifted half a point toward Northern Illinois before closing at +7, yet the Falcons still covered comfortably.

Air Force is 4–1 overall with a three-game winning streak. The Falcons are 2–1 at home and 2–0 away/neutral, 3–2 against the spread and 2–3 on the over/under in five games with a recorded closing line.

Northern Illinois is 0–5 with a five-game losing streak. The Huskies are 0–2 at home and 0–3 away/neutral, 1–4 against the spread and 2–3 on the over/under in five games with a recorded closing line.

What's next for Air Force Falcons and Northern Illinois Huskies?

Air Force travels to face Wyoming on Friday, October 23. Northern Illinois hosts Hawai'i on Saturday, October 24.