San José State Spartans defeat Cal Poly Mustangs 30-20: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Cal Poly Mustangs 20, San José State Spartans 30

San José State defeated Cal Poly 30–20 on Saturday at CEFCU Stadium. The Mustangs covered the +21.5 spread despite the loss, and the game finished under the 58.5 total with 50 combined points.

Cal Poly Mustangs vs. San José State Spartans final score and game recap

Neither team scored in the first quarter. San José State broke through in the second period with 13 points while Cal Poly answered with a touchdown, leaving the halftime score 13–6 in favor of the Spartans.

The third quarter saw San José State extend its lead to 20–13. Cal Poly added a touchdown in the final period, but San José State sealed the win with a 10-point burst for a 30–20 final.

Who covered the spread in Cal Poly Mustangs vs. San José State Spartans?

Cal Poly covered the +21.5 spread. San José State won by 10 points, leaving the underdog within the line. AiQ's spread pick of Cal Poly +21.5 at 57% confidence graded as a win.

Did Cal Poly Mustangs vs. San José State Spartans go over or under the total?

The game went under the 58.5 total by 8.5 points. AiQ had taken the over at 57% confidence, resulting in a loss.

How did AiQ's Cal Poly Mustangs vs. San José State Spartans predictions do?

AiQ posted a 2–1 record across graded picks:

The model correctly identified the Spartans as the outright winner and the Mustangs as the ATS value, but misjudged the scoring pace on a low-scoring game.

Cal Poly Mustangs vs. San José State Spartans odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The market priced San José State at -2100 before kickoff, implying a 92% win probability after removing the vig. AiQ's calibrated probability matched that 92% mark exactly, offering no edge. The Spartans' victory satisfied the market's expectation.

Cal Poly is 0–1 after this game, with insufficient data to establish trends.

San José State improved to 2–1 overall with a 1–0 home record and 1–1 away/neutral. The Spartans are 1–0 against the spread in games with a recorded closing line and 0–1 on over/under bets. They have won two straight games.

What's next for Cal Poly Mustangs and San José State Spartans?

San José State hosts Fresno State on Saturday, September 19, at CEFCU Stadium. Cal Poly's next opponent was not provided.