North Dakota State Bison defeat Air Force Falcons 38-32: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · North Dakota State Bison 38, Air Force Falcons 32

North Dakota State Bison defeated Air Force Falcons 38–32, covered the –2 spread, and the game went over the 48.5 total.

North Dakota State Bison vs. Air Force Falcons final score and game recap

North Dakota State built an early lead and never relinquished it. The Bison scored 7 points in the first quarter, then 21 in the second to reach 28–13 at halftime. A touchdown in the third stretched the margin to 35–13. Air Force's offense came alive in the fourth quarter with 19 points, but North Dakota State's field goal sealed the 38–32 final.

Who covered the spread in North Dakota State Bison vs. Air Force Falcons?

North Dakota State Bison covered the –2 spread, winning by 6 points. The line opened at Air Force +2.5 and drifted half a point toward the Falcons before closing at +2. AiQ's spread pick was North Dakota State –1.5 at 58% confidence and graded a WIN at AiQ's line.

Did North Dakota State Bison vs. Air Force Falcons go over or under the total?

The game went over the 48.5 total, finishing at 70 points. The total opened at 47.5 and moved up one point to 48.5. AiQ's pick was Over 47.5 at 62% confidence, resulting in a WIN.

How did AiQ's North Dakota State Bison vs. Air Force Falcons predictions do?

AiQ went 3–0 on this game.

The model correctly identified the Bison as the winner, the margin to cover, and the high-scoring nature of the contest.

North Dakota State Bison vs. Air Force Falcons odds: sportsbook value and line movement

North Dakota State opened as –121 favorites, implying a 52% win probability after vig removal, while Air Force was +101. The bookmaker's margin sat at 4.5%. A $100 wager on North Dakota State paid $82.64. AiQ's pre-game expected value was –4.0% at –118, meaning the price was unfavorable despite the model favoring the Bison. The spread drifted half a point toward Air Force, yet the Bison still covered. The total rose one point from 47.5 to 48.5, aligning with the game's eventual over.

North Dakota State is 3–0 overall, 2–0 at home and 1–0 on the road. In the two games with a recorded spread they are 2–0 against the spread, and they are split 1–1 on the over/under in those same contests. They have won three straight.

Air Force is 1–1 overall, both games at home. They are 0–1 against the spread in their one game with a recorded closing line and 1–0 on the over/under in their one game with a closing total.

What's next for North Dakota State Bison and Air Force Falcons?

North Dakota State travels to Sacramento State Hornets on Saturday, September 19. Air Force heads to Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday, September 26.