UTSA Roadrunners defeat Navy Midshipmen 38-34: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Navy Midshipmen 34, UTSA Roadrunners 38
UTSA Roadrunners defeated Navy Midshipmen 38–34, covered the –5.5 spread, and the game went over 53.5 total.
Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners final score and game recap
Navy struck first at the Alamodome on Saturday, October 17, scoring 7 points in the opening quarter while UTSA managed nothing. The Roadrunners erupted in the second, posting 21 points to take a 21–20 halftime lead. Navy answered with 13 points in that same period, keeping the deficit to a single point. The third quarter saw UTSA add a field goal for a 24–20 edge, then both teams scored 14 in the fourth. Navy's Jackson Gutierrez rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns, while Jordan Collins caught 2 passes for 117 yards and two scores. UTSA's Owen McCown completed 28 of 38 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns, and Will Henderson III rushed for 78 yards and a score.
Who covered the spread in Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners?
Navy covered the +5.5 spread despite losing by 4 points. UTSA, favored at –5.5, fell 1.5 points short of the line. The spread opened at –6.5 and tightened to –5.5, with money flowing toward Navy in the final hours.
Did Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners go over or under the total?
The game went over 53.5, finishing with 72 combined points—18.5 above the line. The total opened at 55.5 and drifted down 2 points to 53.5.
How did AiQ's Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners predictions do?
AiQ went 1–0 on graded picks.
- Moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners at –219 – WIN (+$45.66 on a $100 bet)
Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter
- UTSA Roadrunners team total 30.5: Over (paid –106); they scored 38
- Navy Midshipmen team total 23.5: Over (paid –122); they scored 34
- First-half moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners won (paid –185)
- First-half spread: Navy Midshipmen +3 covered (paid –102)
- First-half total 27.5: Over (paid +102); 41 points scored
- First-quarter moneyline: Navy Midshipmen won (paid +140)
- First-quarter total 10.5: Under (paid –120); 7 points scored
Navy Midshipmen vs. UTSA Roadrunners odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was Navy +180 and UTSA –219, implying a 34% win probability for Navy and 66% for UTSA after vigorish removal. The bookmaker's margin was 4.4%. UTSA's –219 moneyline returned $45.66 profit on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value for UTSA at –205 was –0.4%, a negative-EV price. The market's implied probability for UTSA (67% after vigorish) aligned with AiQ's calibrated estimate of 67%. Late spread movement toward Navy proved prescient, as the underdog covered.
Navy Midshipmen and UTSA Roadrunners betting trends: 2026 season
Navy sits 2–4 overall through six games, unbeaten at home (2–0) but winless on the road or at neutral sites (0–4). Against the spread, Navy is 2–4 and has hit the over in four of six games. Their last five results read L, W, L, L, L.
UTSA improved to 6–1 overall in seven games, perfect at home (4–0) and 2–1 away or at neutral sites. Against the spread, UTSA is 4–3 and has gone over in four of seven games. The Roadrunners have won four straight.
What's next for Navy Midshipmen and UTSA Roadrunners?
Navy hosts North Texas Mean Green on Saturday, October 24. UTSA travels to face Tulane Green Wave the same day.