Boise State Broncos defeat Fresno State Bulldogs 38-31: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · Boise State Broncos 38, Fresno State Bulldogs 31

Boise State defeated Fresno State 38-31 on Saturday at Valley Children's Stadium. Fresno State covered the spread as a +8.5 underdog despite the loss, and the game finished over the 48.5 total at 69 combined points.

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs final score and game recap

Boise State led 15-13 after the first quarter and extended that advantage to 25-20 by halftime. Maddux Madsen completed 23 of 34 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns, while Dylan Riley rushed 19 times for 150 yards and a score. The Broncos scored 3 points in the third quarter to reach 28-20, with Fresno State scoreless in the third quarter. Fresno answered with 11 points in the fourth, but Boise's offense scored 10 more to seal the win.

Fresno State's Jayden Mandal threw for 218 yards and two touchdowns on 19 completions. Ezekiel Avit caught six passes for 96 yards and both of those receiving touchdowns.

Who covered the spread in Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs?

Fresno State covered at +8.5. Boise State won by seven points, leaving the underdog on the money despite losing the game. The spread opened at Fresno +6.5 and moved two points toward Boise as late money favored the Broncos.

Did Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs go over or under the total?

The game went over 48.5, finishing at 69 points-a 20.5-point overage.

How did AiQ's Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs predictions do?

AiQ finished 9-8 across all graded picks.

Moneyline: Boise State Broncos at -323 – WIN (+$30.96 on a $100 bet)
Spread: Fresno State Bulldogs +8.5 – WIN
Total: Over 48.5 – WIN
Player props: 8-8 (+$66.74 on $100 per pick)

AiQ correctly identified the winner, spread outcome, and total direction but split player-prop selections evenly.

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs player prop results

AiQ finished 8-8 on player props, netting +$66.74.

Josiah Freeman (Fresno State Bulldogs) anytime touchdown +215 – LOSS (0)
Julius Gillick (Fresno State Bulldogs) anytime touchdown +165 – LOSS (0)
Josiah Freeman (Fresno State Bulldogs) over 57.5 receiving yards -112 – LOSS (53)
Maddux Madsen (Boise State Broncos) over 213.5 passing yards -112 – WIN (238)
Dylan Riley (Boise State Broncos) over 88.5 rushing yards -112 – WIN (150)
Ben Ford (Boise State Broncos) anytime touchdown +475 – LOSS (0)
Dylan Riley (Boise State Broncos) anytime touchdown -475 – WIN (2)
Matt Wagner over 40.5 receiving yards -112 – WIN (46)
Matt Wagner anytime touchdown +160 – LOSS (0)
Bryson Donelson (Fresno State Bulldogs) under 37.5 rushing yards -110 – WIN (31)
Jayden Mandal (Fresno State Bulldogs) over 198.5 passing yards -112 – WIN (218)
Maddux Madsen (Boise State Broncos) under 1.5 passing touchdowns -152 – LOSS (2)
Four additional AiQ prop picks not listed are included in the 8-8 record.

Passing and rushing yardage lines hit more often than touchdown-specific bets.

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs game prop results: first half, team totals and first quarter

First-half total 24.5: Over (paid +102); 45 points were scored.
Boise State Broncos team total 29.5: Over (paid -111); the Broncos posted 38 points.
First-half spread Boise State Broncos -4.5: Covered (paid -108).
First-half moneyline Boise State Broncos: Won the first half (paid -250).
First-quarter moneyline Boise State Broncos: Won the first quarter (paid -188).
First-quarter total 9.5: Over (paid -140); 28 points were recorded.
Fresno State Bulldogs team total 19.5: Over (paid -122); Fresno tallied 31 points.

Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Boise State -323, implying a 73 percent win probability after removing the 4.4 percent vig. AiQ's pre-game model placed the Broncos at 75 percent confidence, matching the market's vig-free estimate. However, AiQ calculated -0.7 percent expected value at -310, making the -323 price slightly negative-EV despite the model's conviction. The spread opened at Fresno +6.5 and moved to +8.5 as money favored Boise, yet the underdog covered, illustrating the risk of chasing late line movement.

Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs betting trends: 2026 season

Boise State sits 5-1 overall with a 3-0 home record and 2-1 away/neutral split. Against the spread in five games with a recorded closing line, the Broncos are 2-3. They have hit the over in all five total-line contests. Boise has won five straight games.

Fresno State is 4-2 overall, 2-1 at home and 2-1 away/neutral. The Bulldogs are 5-1 against the spread in six games with a recorded closing line and sit at an even 3-3 over/under split.

What's next for Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs?

Boise State travels to Washington State on Saturday, October 24. Fresno State hosts Oregon State on Saturday, October 31.