UTSA Roadrunners defeat Texas State Bobcats 31-26: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26

UTSA Roadrunners 31, Texas State Bobcats 26 – UTSA covered the –2.5 spread and the game finished under the 65.5 total.

UTSA Roadrunners vs. Texas State Bobcats final score and game recap

UTSA scored first with a touchdown in the opening quarter, but Texas State answered with 17 unanswered points to lead 17–7 at halftime. The Roadrunners clawed back in the third quarter, adding 10 points while holding the Bobcats to 6 points, narrowing the gap to 23–17. UTSA then outscored Texas State 14–3 in the fourth quarter to secure a 31–26 victory on the road at UFCU Stadium on September 12.

Who covered the spread in UTSA Roadrunners vs. Texas State Bobcats?

UTSA covered the –2.5 spread as the underdog, winning by 5 points. The line opened at Texas State –2 and moved 0.5 points toward the Bobcats, closing at –2.5. AiQ's spread pick of UTSA +2.5 at 60% confidence graded as a win at its own line.

Did UTSA Roadrunners vs. Texas State Bobcats go over or under the total?

The contest went under the 65.5 total, finishing at 57 points. The total opened at 66.5 and was trimmed to 65.5. AiQ had taken the over at 65.5 with 62% confidence, resulting in a loss.

How did AiQ's UTSA Roadrunners vs. Texas State Bobcats predictions do?

AiQ finished 2–1 across the graded picks.

AiQ correctly identified the underdog and the spread outcome but misread the scoring pace, missing the under result.

UTSA Roadrunners vs. Texas State Bobcats odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The moneyline closed at UTSA +112 and Texas State –135, implying a 45% win probability for the Roadrunners after vig removal. The market's vig was 4.6%. UTSA's victory paid $112 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the UTSA moneyline was –2.8% at +114, indicating the price was slightly unfavorable despite the model's 45% win probability aligning with the market. The spread moved 0.5 points toward Texas State, yet the Bobcats failed to cover.

UTSA Roadrunners sit 2–0 overall, with a 1–0 record on the road and 1–0 at home. They are 1–0 against the spread in their only game with a recorded closing line and 0–1 on totals. The Roadrunners are on a two-game winning streak.

Texas State Bobcats are 0–2 overall, 0–1 at home and 0–1 away. They are 0–1 against the spread and 0–1 on totals in their only game with recorded lines. The Bobcats have dropped two straight.

What's next for UTSA Roadrunners and Texas State Bobcats?

UTSA travels to face the Texas Longhorns on Saturday, September 19. Texas State hosts the North Texas Mean Green on the same day.