Boise State Broncos defeat Memphis Tigers 38-20: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Memphis Tigers 20, Boise State Broncos 38

Boise State defeated Memphis 38-20 on Saturday at Albertsons Stadium, covering the -9.5 spread and the game went over the 55-point total.

Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos final score and game recap

Memphis opened with a touchdown to lead 7-3 after the first quarter, then scored 13 points in the second to reach 20-17 at halftime. Boise State flipped the script in the second half, outscoring Memphis 21-0 across the third and fourth quarters to seal a 38-20 victory.

Who covered the spread in Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos?

Boise State covered as the -9.5 favorite, winning by 18 points. The spread opened at -8.5 and drifted to -9.5, reflecting late money toward the Broncos. AiQ's pick of Memphis at +9.5 with 58% confidence did not land.

Did Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos go over or under the total?

The game finished at 58 points, three above the 55 total. The total climbed 0.5 points from its 54.5 opener. AiQ's selection of Over 54.5 at 62% confidence won.

How did AiQ's Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos predictions do?

AiQ finished 2-1 on the game:

The model correctly identified the winner and the over but missed the spread despite Boise State's comfortable margin.

Memphis Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Memphis +275 and Boise State -348, implying a 26% win probability for Memphis and 74% for Boise State after removing the 4.3% bookmaker margin. AiQ's pregame moneyline expected value for Boise State was -1.8% at the best available price of -335 (FanDuel), meaning the market price was slightly unfavorable despite the model favoring the side. The spread moved one point toward Boise State, aligning with the eventual result.

Memphis sits 2-1 overall with a 2-1 against-the-spread record in three games with a recorded spread. The Tigers have hit the over in two of three total contests. Boise State is 1-1 overall and a perfect 2-0 against the spread in two games with a recorded spread, with both contests going over.

What's next for Memphis Tigers and Boise State Broncos?

Memphis hosts UT Martin on Saturday, September 19. Boise State welcomes South Dakota the same day.