Northwestern Wildcats defeat Michigan State Spartans 24-21: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Northwestern Wildcats 24, Michigan State Spartans 21
Northwestern Wildcats defeated Michigan State Spartans 24–21 on Saturday at Spartan Stadium. Michigan State covered the +7.5 spread despite the loss, while the game finished under the 50-point total at 45 combined points.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans final score and game recap
Northwestern's fourth-quarter surge decided the game. Michigan State led 14–10 at halftime. Northwestern scored a field goal in the third quarter to trail 14–13, then outscored Michigan State 11–7 in the fourth to secure the win.
Aidan Chiles completed 18 of 27 passes for 226 yards without a touchdown for Northwestern. Caleb Komolafe rushed 15 times for 67 yards and one touchdown. For Michigan State, Alessio Milivojevic was 19 of 30 for 216 yards and two touchdowns. Chrishon McCray caught three passes for 64 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans?
Michigan State Spartans covered the +7.5 spread. Northwestern, favored at -7.5, won by only three points, making the underdog the ATS winner. The spread did not move from open to close.
Did Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans go over or under the total?
The game went under the 50 total, finishing at 45 points. The total opened at 48.5 and moved up 1.5 points to 50.
How did AiQ's Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans predictions do?
AiQ finished 11–12 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Northwestern Wildcats at -287 – WIN (+$34.84 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 10–12 – LOSS
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 10–12, netting a loss of $519.45 on $100 per pick.
- Drew Wagner under 36.5 receiving yards at -112; actual 18 – WIN
- Rodney Bullard Jr. under 3.5 receptions at -180; actual 2 – WIN
- Chrishon McCray under 34.5 receiving yards at -112; actual 64 – LOSS
- Jaziun Patterson anytime touchdown at -235; actual 0 – LOSS
- Alessio Milivojevic under 191.5 passing yards at -112; actual 216 – LOSS
- Aidan Chiles anytime touchdown at -155; actual 1 – WIN
- Rodney Bullard Jr. under 38.5 receiving yards at -116; actual 11 – WIN
- Aidan Chiles over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +112; actual 0 – LOSS
- Joseph Himon II anytime touchdown at +175; actual 0 – LOSS
- Caleb Komolafe anytime touchdown at -155; actual 1 – WIN
- Griffin Wilde anytime touchdown at +160; actual 0 – LOSS
- Chrishon McCray under 3.5 receptions at -160; actual 3 – WIN
Receiving-yard unders mostly hit, but passing-yard and touchdown props faltered.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half
- Northwestern Wildcats team total 29.5: Under (paid -113); they scored 24
- First-quarter total 10.5: Under (paid -120); 10 points were scored
- First-quarter moneyline: Michigan State Spartans won the quarter (paid +154)
- First-half moneyline: Michigan State Spartans won the half (paid +180)
- First-half spread: Michigan State Spartans +3.5 covered (paid -102)
- Michigan State Spartans team total 20.5: Over (paid -115); they scored 21
- First-half total 26.5: Under (paid +105); 24 points were recorded
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at -287 for Northwestern and +233 for Michigan State, implying a 71% win probability for Northwestern after removing the vig and 29% for Michigan State. The bookmaker's vig was 4.2%. AiQ's moneyline model priced Northwestern at -295, a -1.2% negative expected value. The market's vig-free win probability of 71% and AiQ's calibrated estimate of 74% were closely aligned, indicating model confidence but not value at the closing price.
Northwestern Wildcats and Michigan State Spartans betting trends: 2026 season
Northwestern sits 5–1 overall, 4–0 at home and 1–1 away/neutral. In five games with a recorded closing spread they are 4–1 ATS. In five games with a recorded total they went over twice and finished under once. They have won three straight.
Michigan State is 2–5 overall, 2–3 at home and 0–2 away/neutral. In seven games with a recorded spread they are 4–2–1 ATS. In seven games with a recorded total they went over twice and finished under five times. They have lost five straight.
What's next for Northwestern Wildcats and Michigan State Spartans?
Northwestern hosts Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday, October 24. Michigan State travels to UCLA Bruins on Saturday, October 24.