USC Trojans defeat Penn State Nittany Lions 31-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23
USC Trojans won 31–23, covering the +2 spread as an underdog. The game finished under the 54.5 total by half a point.
USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions final score and game recap
The teams entered halftime deadlocked at 17–17. USC pulled ahead 24–20 after the third quarter, then won 31–23.
Jayden Maiava orchestrated the Trojan offense efficiently, completing 21 of 33 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. Trent Mosley led the receiving corps with nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. Rocco Becht kept Penn State competitive, going 21 of 32 for 289 yards and a touchdown while also avoiding interceptions. Chase Sowell added four receptions for 95 yards for the Nittany Lions.
Who covered the spread in USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions?
USC covered as a +2 underdog, winning by 8 points. The spread opened at Penn State –1.5 and closed at –2, with late money shifting toward the home team. The underdog upset rendered the closing line irrelevant.
Did USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions go over or under the total?
The game finished at 54 points against a 54.5 total, falling just under by half a point. Scoring paced 14–20–10–10 across the four quarters.
How did AiQ's USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions predictions do?
AiQ posted a 13–10 record overall on this game:
- Moneyline: picked USC Trojans +105 – WIN.
- Spread: picked USC Trojans +2 – WIN.
- Total: picked Under 54.5 – WIN.
- Player props: 12–10 – WIN.
USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions player prop results
AiQ finished 12–10 on player props, netting +$294.48 on $100 stakes per pick.
Wins included Benjamin Brahmer under 42.5 receiving yards (actual 4), Rocco Becht under 1.5 passing touchdowns (actual 1), Jayden Maiava over 253.5 passing yards (actual 301), James Peoples under 53.5 rushing yards (actual 20), Carson Hansen under 34.5 rushing yards (actual 28), Tanook Hines anytime touchdown (actual 1), and Chase Sowell over 63.5 receiving yards (actual 95).
Losses came on Rocco Becht under 233.5 passing yards (actual 289), Brett Eskildsen under 40.5 receiving yards (actual 70), Tanook Hines under 42.5 receiving yards (actual 82), Benjamin Brahmer over 3.5 receptions (actual 1), and Brett Eskildsen under 3.5 receptions (actual 4).
USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half
- USC Trojans team total 27.5: Over (paid –111); they scored 31.
- First-quarter moneyline: tied, bets refunded.
- First-half moneyline: tied, bets refunded.
- First-half total 27.5: Over (paid –110); 34 points were scored.
- First-quarter total 10.5: Over (paid +100); 14 points were scored.
- Penn State Nittany Lions team total 27.5: Under (paid –122); they scored 23.
- First-half spread: USC Trojans +0.5 covered (paid –130).
USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The moneyline closed at USC +105 and Penn State –126, implying a 47 percent win probability for USC and 53 percent for Penn State after removing the 4.5 percent vig. USC's victory at +105 paid $105 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the USC line at –5.0 percent edge at –115, indicating negative expected value despite the model's 51 percent win probability matching the market's vig-free estimate. The spread moved half a point toward Penn State, from –1.5 to –2, but the underdog covered regardless.
USC Trojans and Penn State Nittany Lions betting trends: 2026 season
USC sits 6–1 overall with a 2–5 record against the spread in seven games and 4 overs to 3 unders on totals. The Trojans have won two straight.
Penn State stands 3–3 overall with a 2–4 record against the spread in six games and 2–3–1 on totals. The Nittany Lions have lost three straight.
What's next for USC Trojans and Penn State Nittany Lions?
The USC Trojans travel to Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday, October 24. The Penn State Nittany Lions host the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday, October 31.