Illinois Fighting Illini defeat Michigan State Spartans 38-37: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37

Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37 – Michigan State covered the +2.5 spread and the total went over 48.5.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans final score and game recap

Michigan State answered in the third quarter with 10 points while holding Illinois to a field goal, narrowing the gap to 23-17. The fourth quarter saw Illinois score 8 points and Michigan State score 14, forcing overtime at 31-31.

Clement led Illinois with six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. Houser completed 20 of 29 passes for 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. For Michigan State, Patterson carried 18 times for 92 yards and three rushing touchdowns, while Alessio Milivojevic completed 22 of 26 for 196 yards and two touchdowns.

Who covered the spread in Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans?

Michigan State Spartans covered the +2.5 spread. Illinois won by one point, meaning the underdog stayed within the closing line despite the loss. The spread did not move from open to close.

Did Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans go over or under the total?

The game went over 48.5, finishing at 75 combined points. The total opened at 48 and moved up half a point to 48.5.

How did AiQ's Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans predictions do?

AiQ finished 9-10 across every graded pick.

• Moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini at -141 – WIN (+$70.92 on a $100 bet).
• Player props: 8-10 – LOSS.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans player prop results

AiQ's player prop record was 8-10, netting a -$380.08 loss on $100 stakes.

• Alessio Milivojevic under 1.5 passing touchdowns at -196 – actual 2 – LOSS.
• Alessio Milivojevic under 185.5 passing yards at -112 – actual 196 – LOSS.
• Hudson Clement over 3.5 receptions at -136 – actual 6 – WIN.
• Rodney Bullard Jr. under 34.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 36 – LOSS.
• Rodney Bullard Jr. under 2.5 receptions at +106 – actual 4 – LOSS.
• Aidan Laughery over 66.5 rushing yards at -112 – actual 70 – WIN.
• Ty Robinson anytime touchdown at +250 – actual 0 – LOSS.
• Hudson Clement over 50.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 105 – WIN.
• Jayden Savoury under 32.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 49 – LOSS.
• Katin Houser over 240.5 passing yards at -112 – actual 194 – LOSS.
• Chrishon McCray over 29.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 33 – WIN.
• Collin Dixon under 94.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 62 – WIN.

Six additional picks contributed to the 8-10 tally.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter

• Illinois Fighting Illini team total 24.5: Over (paid -115); they scored 38.
• Michigan State Spartans team total 23.5: Over (paid -120); they scored 37.
• First-half moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini won the first half (paid -142).
• First-quarter moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini won the first quarter (paid -130).
• First-quarter total 9.5: Over (paid -130); 10 points were scored.
• First-half total 23.5: Over (paid -130); 27 points were scored.
• First-half spread: Illinois Fighting Illini -1.5 covered (paid -108).

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans odds: sportsbook value and line movement

Moneyline: Illinois Fighting Illini -141 | Michigan State Spartans +118. The closing moneyline implied a 56% win probability for Illinois after vigorish removal, with 44% for Michigan State. The bookmaker's margin was 4.4%. AiQ's internal model priced the Illini at -132, matching the market's implied probability at 57%. The pick was negative expected value for the model despite the correct side.

Illinois Fighting Illini and Michigan State Spartans betting trends: 2026 season

Illinois Fighting Illini sit at 3-3 overall. At home they are 2-2; away or neutral they are 1-1. Against the spread, they are 2-4 in six games with recorded lines. The over-under record is 5 overs and 1 under in six games. Their last five results are W, L, L, W, L.

Michigan State Spartans are 2-4 overall. They are 2-2 at home and 0-2 away or neutral. Their against-the-spread record stands at 3-2-1 in six games with lines. The over-under is 2 overs and 4 unders in six games. Their last five results are L, L, L, L, W, marking a four-game losing streak.

What's next for Illinois Fighting Illini and Michigan State Spartans?

Illinois will host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, October 24. Michigan State travels to face the UCLA Bruins on the same day.

• More Michigan State Spartans recaps
• More Illinois Fighting Illini recaps