UCLA Bruins defeat San Diego State Aztecs 28-10: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · San Diego State Aztecs 10, UCLA Bruins 28

UCLA Bruins covered the -13.5 spread, winning 28–10, and the total went under 54 as the combined score finished at 38 points.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. UCLA Bruins final score and game recap

The Rose Bowl saw a scoreless first half, with neither team breaking through by halftime. UCLA opened the scoring in the third quarter with a touchdown to lead 7–0. San Diego State answered in the fourth with 10 points, but UCLA scored 21 points in the final quarter to seal a 28–10 victory.

Who covered the spread in San Diego State Aztecs vs. UCLA Bruins?

UCLA Bruins covered the -13.5 spread, winning by 18 points. The line opened at -12.5 and moved one point toward UCLA, reflecting late money backing the Bruins. AiQ had taken San Diego State +13.5 at 58% confidence, which resulted in a loss.

Did San Diego State Aztecs vs. UCLA Bruins go over or under the total?

The game went under the 54-point total, finishing at 38 points. The total opened at 55 and slipped to 54. AiQ had backed the over at 53.5 with 62% confidence, resulting in a loss.

How did AiQ's San Diego State Aztecs vs. UCLA Bruins predictions do?

AiQ finished 1–2 across its graded picks.

The model correctly identified the Bruins as the outright winner but missed both the spread and total outcomes.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. UCLA Bruins odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline listed San Diego State at +425 and UCLA at -572, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 18% for the Aztecs and 82% for the Bruins after removing vigorish. The sportsbook margin sat at about 4.2%. A $100 wager on UCLA at -572 returned $17.48. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the Bruins was -4.7% at -535, indicating the price was negative expected value despite the model favoring the side.

San Diego State sits at 1–1 overall, unbeaten at home (1–0) but winless on the road (0–1). In its sole game with a recorded closing spread, the Aztecs were 0–1 against the spread, and the only total line saw them go under. UCLA is 2–0 overall, 1–0 at home and 1–0 away. The Bruins are 2–0 against the spread in two games with recorded lines and stand at 1–1 on the over/under.

What's next for San Diego State Aztecs and UCLA Bruins?

San Diego State will host James Madison Dukes at home on Saturday, September 19. UCLA returns to the Rose Bowl to host Purdue Boilermakers the same day.