SMU Mustangs defeat Virginia Cavaliers 23-13: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Virginia Cavaliers 13, SMU Mustangs 23

SMU Mustangs defeated Virginia Cavaliers 23-13 on Saturday, October 17 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, with SMU covering the -9.5 spread and the game finishing under 51.5.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs final score and game recap

SMU controlled the game from the opening quarter. Virginia was shut out early while SMU built a 3-0 lead. The Cavaliers answered with 10 points in the second quarter, but SMU matched that output to take a 13-10 halftime advantage. Each team scored 3 points in the third quarter, leaving SMU ahead 16-13. SMU scored 7 points in the fourth quarter to finish 23-13.

Kevin Jennings led the Mustangs offense with 246 passing yards and two touchdowns on 23-of-36 completions. Kendrick Raphael rushed for 124 yards on 22 carries. Virginia's Beau Pribula completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards with no touchdowns, while Jekail Middlebrook contributed 59 rushing yards on 14 carries.

Who covered the spread in Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs?

SMU Mustangs covered the -9.5 spread by winning by 10 points. The line opened at -9 and shifted 0.5 points toward SMU as money came in on the favorite.

Did Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs go over or under the total?

The game finished at 36 combined points, 15.5 under the 51.5 total. SMU scored 3-10-3-7 across quarters; Virginia managed 0-10-3-0. The total opened at 52 and moved down 0.5 to 51.5.

How did AiQ's Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs predictions do?

AiQ finished 6-17 across all graded picks on this game.

Moneyline: SMU Mustangs at -362 – WIN (+$27.62 on a $100 bet)
Player props: 5-17 (net -$1,187.50 on $100 per pick)

AiQ's moneyline pick was correct, but the sportsbook's -362 price represented negative expected value. The player props went 5-17.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs player prop results

AiQ went 5-17 on player props.

Da'Shawn Martin anytime touchdown +180 – LOSS (0)
Da'Shawn Martin under 37.5 receiving yards -112 – WIN (35)
Jekail Middlebrook under 68.5 rushing yards -112 – WIN (59)
Beau Pribula over 0.5 passing touchdowns -225 – LOSS (0)
Beau Pribula under 14.5 rushing yards -110 – LOSS (25)
Kendrick Raphael anytime touchdown -300 – LOSS (0)
Kevin Jennings under 14.5 rushing yards -152 – LOSS (26)
Yamir Knight over 60.5 receiving yards -112 – LOSS (51)
Kevin Jennings anytime touchdown +165 – LOSS (0)
Kevin Jennings over 1.5 passing touchdowns -134 – WIN (2)
Yannick Smith under 48.5 receiving yards -112 – LOSS (87)
Kendrick Raphael under 85.5 rushing yards -112 – LOSS (124)

Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter

SMU Mustangs team total 30.5: Under (paid +102); they scored 23
First-half total 26.5: Under (paid -110); 23 points scored
First-half moneyline: SMU Mustangs won the first half (paid -298)
First-quarter moneyline: SMU Mustangs won the first quarter (paid -280)
Virginia Cavaliers team total 20.5: Under (paid -118); they scored 13
First-half spread: Virginia Cavaliers +6.5 covered (paid -102)
First-quarter total 10.5: Under (paid -140); 3 points scored

Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Virginia Cavaliers +285 and SMU Mustangs -362, implying a 25% win probability for Virginia and 75% for SMU after removing the 4.3% sportsbook margin. SMU's -362 line paid $27.62 on a $100 wager. AiQ's expected-value calculation placed SMU at -1.3% using a -350 price from Fanatics, indicating the market price was slightly unfavorable despite the correct outcome. The spread moved 0.5 points toward SMU, and that side covered.

Virginia Cavaliers and SMU Mustangs betting trends: 2026 season

Virginia sits 4-3 overall, 4-1 at home and 0-2 away or neutral. Against the spread in seven games with a recorded closing line, the Cavaliers are 3-4. Their over-under record stands 3-4 across seven total-line games. Their last five results read loss, win, loss, win, loss.

SMU is 5-1 overall, unbeaten at home (4-0) and 1-1 away or neutral. Against the spread in five games with a closing line, the Mustangs are 2-2-1. Their over-under record is 2-3 across five total-line games. SMU has won three straight.

What's next for Virginia Cavaliers and SMU Mustangs?

Virginia hosts Duke Blue Devils on Friday, October 23. SMU welcomes California Golden Bears at home on Saturday, October 24.