Miami Hurricanes defeat Florida State Seminoles 43-35: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Florida State Seminoles 35, Miami Hurricanes 43
Miami defeated Florida State 43-35 in overtime Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium, with Florida State covering as a 20-point underdog while the game cleared a 57-point total. AiQ went 14-13 on all graded picks, winning the moneyline and spread but splitting player props.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes final score and game recap
The teams traded leads throughout regulation. Miami scored first with a 7-0 first-quarter advantage, but Florida State answered with 14 unanswered points to tie 14-14 at halftime. The Seminoles extended that to 21-14 after three quarters before Miami rallied with 14 fourth-quarter points to force overtime tied 28-28. Both teams scored 7 in the fifth quarter, sending the game to a sixth. Miami's offense scored 8 in overtime while Florida State managed nothing, ending it 43-35.
Ashton Daniels completed 15 of 28 passes for 298 yards, four touchdowns and one interception for Florida State. Duce Robinson caught five passes for 113 yards and two scores. Miami's Darian Mensah went 23 of 34 for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Malachi Toney hauled in 11 receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns.
Who covered the spread in Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes?
Florida State covered at +20. The spread opened at Miami -21.5 and softened to -20, with late money flowing toward the underdog. Miami won by 8 points, leaving Florida State on the right side despite the loss.
Did Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes go over or under the total?
The game went over 57, finishing at 78 points. The total opened at 56.5 and moved up 0.5 to 57.
How did AiQ's Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes predictions do?
AiQ finished 14-13 across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Miami Hurricanes -1567 – WIN (+$6.38 on a $100 bet)
- Spread: Florida State Seminoles +20 – WIN
- Total: Over 57 – WIN
- Player props: 13-13 – net loss of $404.81 on $100 per pick at listed prices
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 13-13, netting a $404.81 loss on $100 stakes.
- Miami Hurricanes Defense anytime touchdown +280 – LOSS (0)
- Miami Hurricanes D/ST anytime touchdown +400 – LOSS (0)
- Jayvan Boggs over 32.5 receiving yards -116 – WIN (52)
- Elija Lofton under 26.5 receiving yards -112 – WIN (26)
- Cooper Barkate over 56.5 receiving yards -112 – LOSS (28)
- Duce Robinson under 3.5 receptions -148 – LOSS (5)
- Duce Robinson under 48.5 receiving yards -112 – LOSS (113)
- Jayvan Boggs under 2.5 receptions -130 – LOSS (3)
- Ashton Daniels anytime touchdown +105 – WIN (1)
- Ousmane Kromah over 57.5 rushing yards -112 – LOSS (44)
- Darian Mensah anytime touchdown +240 – LOSS (0)
- Cooper Barkate anytime touchdown -130 – LOSS (0)
- 14 additional picks contributed to the overall 13-13 tally.
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes game prop results: first quarter, first half and team totals
- First-quarter moneyline: Miami Hurricanes won the quarter (paid -425).
- First-half moneyline: the half was tied, bets refunded.
- First-quarter total 13.5: Under (paid -115); only 7 points were scored.
- First-half total 30.5: Under (paid -118); 28 points were scored.
- Florida State Seminoles team total 17.5: Over (paid -104); the Seminoles posted 35 points.
- Miami Hurricanes team total 38.5: Over (paid +102); Miami posted 43 points.
- First-half spread: Florida State Seminoles +11.5 covered (paid -112).
Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was Florida State Seminoles +913 and Miami Hurricanes -1567, implying a 10% chance for Florida State and 90% for Miami after vigorish removal, with a bookmaker margin of 3.9%. Miami's -1567 price paid $6.38 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the Miami moneyline was -0.3% at -1400, a negative-EV price despite the model's 93% win probability matching the market's implied 93% after vigorish removal. The spread softened from -21.5 to -20, reflecting late money toward Florida State, which ultimately covered as the underdog.
Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes betting trends: 2026 season
Florida State sits at 3-4 overall, 3-1 at home and 0-3 away or neutral. Their against-the-spread record in six games with a closing spread is 3-2-1, and they are even on the over/under (3 overs, 3 unders). The Seminoles have lost two straight.
Miami remains unbeaten at 6-0, 3-0 at home and 3-0 away or neutral. In five games with a recorded closing spread they are 3-2 against the spread, and they are 4-1 on the over/under in five games. The Hurricanes have won six straight.
What's next for Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes?
Florida State will host the Clemson Tigers on Saturday, October 31. Miami will welcome the Pittsburgh Panthers on Saturday, October 24.