NC State Wolfpack defeat Louisville Cardinals 31-28: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · NCAAF · Louisville Cardinals 28, NC State Wolfpack 31
The NC State Wolfpack beat the Louisville Cardinals 31-28 on Saturday, October 3, 2026, at Carter-Finley Stadium. The NC State Wolfpack covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs. The game went over the closing total of 57, with 59 points combined. AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost, and its player props went 19-16.
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack final score and game recap
The NC State Wolfpack led 3-0 after the first quarter and 13-7 at halftime. The Louisville Cardinals outscored the NC State Wolfpack 21-18 in the second half. The NC State Wolfpack led at the end of every quarter.
The leading performers, from the box score:
- Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville Cardinals): 21/30 passing for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions.
- Isaac Brown (Louisville Cardinals): 9 carries for 125 yards, 1 rushing touchdown.
- CJ Bailey (NC State Wolfpack): 24/40 passing for 373 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception.
- Joshisa Trader (NC State Wolfpack): 5 catches for 92 yards.
Who covered the spread in Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack?
The NC State Wolfpack covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs and won outright, by 3 points.
The spread opened at Louisville Cardinals -3.5 and closed at Louisville Cardinals -5.5.
Did Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack go over or under the total?
The game went over: 59 points combined against a closing total of 57, over by 2. 20 of the 59 points came in the first half.
The total opened at 58.5 and closed at 57.
How did AiQ's Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack predictions do?
AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost, and its player props went 19-16.
- Moneyline: the Louisville Cardinals to win at -225, a loss (-$100 on a $100 bet).
- Player props: 19-16, +$320.60 on $100 a pick at the listed prices.
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack player prop results
AiQ's player prop picks went 19-16 in this game, +$320.60 on $100 a pick at the listed prices.
- Will Wilson: to score a touchdown at +150, a win.
- TreyShun Hurry (Louisville Cardinals): over 3.5 receptions at -102, finished with 4, a win.
- TreyShun Hurry (Louisville Cardinals): under 43.5 receiving yards at -114, finished with 37, a win.
- Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville Cardinals): over 246.5 passing yards at -112, finished with 254, a win.
- Isaac Brown (Louisville Cardinals): under 66.5 rushing yards at -116, finished with 125, a loss.
- Keenan Jackson (NC State Wolfpack): over 59.5 receiving yards at -112, finished with 44, a loss.
- Jayden Scott (NC State Wolfpack): over 66.5 rushing yards at -124, finished with 12, a loss.
- Jaleel Skinner (Louisville Cardinals): to score a touchdown at +240, a loss.
- Jaleel Skinner (Louisville Cardinals): over 36.5 receiving yards at -116, finished with 12, a loss.
- Isaac Brown (Louisville Cardinals): over 9.5 receiving yards at -108, finished with 0, a loss.
- Keenan Jackson (NC State Wolfpack): to score a touchdown at +210, a win.
- Lincoln Kienholz (Louisville Cardinals): under 37.5 rushing yards at -112, finished with 24, a win.
- 23 more picks are in the record above but not listed.
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half
AiQ does not pick game props. This is how the sportsbook markets settled.
- Louisville Cardinals team total 31.5: the under, paying -125, with 28 scored.
- NC State Wolfpack team total 25.5: the over, paying -113, with 31 scored.
- First-quarter moneyline: NC State Wolfpack won the first quarter, paying +120.
- First-half total 28.5: the under, paying -112, with 20 points scored.
- First-quarter total 13.5: the under, paying -120, with 3 points scored.
- First-half moneyline: NC State Wolfpack won the first half, paying +145.
- First-half spread: NC State Wolfpack +3 covered, paying -105.
Louisville Cardinals vs. NC State Wolfpack odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Shortly before the start, the consensus moneyline had the Louisville Cardinals at -215 and the NC State Wolfpack at +175. With the bookmaker's margin removed, that made the Louisville Cardinals a 65% favorite. The NC State Wolfpack won as the underdog at +175: $175 profit on a $100 bet. On AiQ's moneyline pick, the Louisville Cardinals, the best price before the game was -205 at BetRivers: priced below fair (−1.3% value).
The spread moved toward the Louisville Cardinals between the open and the close, and the NC State Wolfpack covered. The total moved down from 58.5 to 57, and the game went over.
Louisville Cardinals and NC State Wolfpack betting trends: 2026 season
This result left the Louisville Cardinals 2-3 in the 2026 regular season (2-1 at home, 0-2 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 3 of 5 games with a closing line on file. Their games went over the closing total 4 times and under 1 time. That made it two straight losses for the Louisville Cardinals.
This result left the NC State Wolfpack 3-2 in the 2026 regular season (3-0 at home, 0-2 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 2 of 5 games with a closing line on file. Their games went over the closing total 4 times and under 1 time. That made it two straight wins for the NC State Wolfpack.
What's next for Louisville Cardinals and NC State Wolfpack?
Next for the Louisville Cardinals: the Florida State Seminoles at home on Friday, October 9, 2026. Next for the NC State Wolfpack: the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at home on Saturday, October 10, 2026.