SMU Mustangs defeat UC Davis Aggies 56-10: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · UC Davis Aggies 10, SMU Mustangs 56

SMU Mustangs dominated UC Davis Aggies 56–10 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, covering the –29 spread and finishing with the total going over 59 points. The Mustangs built a 42–0 halftime lead and never relented, with UC Davis scoring 10 points in the fourth quarter.

UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs final score and game recap

SMU's offensive onslaught began immediately. The Mustangs scored 14 points in the first quarter, then added 28 unanswered in the second to reach 42–0 by halftime. A seven-point third quarter stretched the lead to 49–0. UC Davis finally broke through in the fourth with 10 points, but SMU answered with seven more to close at 56–10. The game was decided before the second quarter ended.

Who covered the spread in UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs?

SMU Mustangs covered the –29 spread, winning by 46 points. The line opened at –25.5 and closed at –29 as money shifted toward the Mustangs. AiQ's spread pick was SMU Mustangs –32.5 at 62% confidence and graded as a win at its own line.

Did UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs go over or under the total?

The game went over the 59 total, finishing with 66 points. The total opened at 58.5 and closed at 59. AiQ's pick was Over 58.5 at 56% confidence and recorded as a win.

How did AiQ's UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs predictions do?

AiQ finished 3–0 across every graded pick.

UC Davis Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was UC Davis +1600 and SMU –4000, implying a 94% win probability for SMU after vigorish removal. The bookmaker's margin sat at 3.4%. SMU won the moneyline at –4000, returning $2.50 on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the SMU moneyline was –3.3%, indicating the price was unfavorable despite alignment with the model's 94% confidence estimate. The spread drifted 3.5 points toward SMU, and that side covered.

UC Davis Aggies are 0–1 overall, 0–1 away, 0–1 against the spread, and 1–0 over/under. SMU Mustangs sit 2–0 overall, 1–0 at home, 1–0 away, 1–0–1 against the spread, and 1–1 over/under, with two straight wins.

What's next for UC Davis Aggies and SMU Mustangs?

SMU Mustangs travel to face Louisville Cardinals on Saturday, September 19.