BYU Cougars defeat Notre Dame Fighting Irish 28-24: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24, BYU Cougars 28

BYU upset Notre Dame 28-24 on Saturday at LaVell Edwards Stadium, covering the +10.5 spread and going over the total to 52 points, five above the 47-point line.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars final score and game recap

The Cougars built a 21-10 halftime lead and held on despite a Notre Dame rally in the second half. The Irish scored six points in the third quarter to cut it to 21-16, then added eight in the fourth. Notre Dame's CJ Carr completed 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards with no touchdowns. Jaden Greathouse caught eight passes for 125 yards. BYU's Bear Bachmeier threw for 224 yards on 23-of-36 passing with one touchdown and one interception, then added two rushing touchdowns on 13 carries for 45 yards.

Who covered the spread in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars?

BYU covered as a +10.5 underdog, winning outright by four points. The spread did not move from open to close.

Did Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars go over or under the total?

The game went over, finishing at 52 points versus the 47-point closing line. The total opened at 46.5 and moved up 0.5 to 47.

How did AiQ's Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars predictions do?

AiQ finished 16-15 across all graded picks on the game. The model backed Notre Dame on the moneyline at -438 and lost. Player props went 16-14, netting +$0.52 on $100 per pick.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars player prop results

AiQ's player prop slate finished 16-14. Notable misses included CJ Carr over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -146 (he threw zero), Aneyas Williams over 38.5 rushing yards at -116 (he had 8), and three anytime touchdown props that failed to cash: Aneyas Williams at -110, Jaden Greathouse at +255, and Legend Glasker at +235. Wins came from Bear Bachmeier over 37.5 rushing yards at -110 (45 actual), Bachmeier over 181.5 passing yards at -112 (224 actual), Walker Lyons over 22.5 receiving yards at -112 (49 actual), Micah Gilbert over 2.5 receptions at -134 (3 actual), and Legend Glasker over 48.5 receiving yards at -112 (66 actual).

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars game prop results: team totals, first half and first quarter

BYU's early scoring sent both first-quarter and first-half totals over their lines.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. BYU Cougars odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline had Notre Dame at -438 and BYU at +338, implying a 78% win probability for the Irish after removing the vig. The bookmaker margin was 4.2%. AiQ's calibrated estimate was 79% for Notre Dame, matching the market's implied probability, but the -410 price carried -1.1% expected value. The model liked the side but not the price. BYU's upset win paid $338 on a $100 wager.

Notre Dame is 6-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 2-1 away or neutral. Against the spread in six games with a recorded line, the Irish are 3-3. On the over-under in six games with a recorded total, they are 4-2 over. Their last five results: loss, then four straight wins.

BYU remains unbeaten at 6-0, 4-0 at home and 2-0 away or neutral. The Cougars are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in six games with a recorded line and 3-3 on the over-under in six games with a recorded total. They have won their last six games.

What's next for Notre Dame Fighting Irish and BYU Cougars?

Notre Dame travels to Navy on Saturday, October 31. BYU visits UCF on Saturday, October 24.