Iowa Hawkeyes defeat Iowa State Cyclones 16-13: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · NCAAF · Iowa State Cyclones 13, Iowa Hawkeyes 16

Iowa Hawkeyes defeated Iowa State Cyclones 16–13 on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa State covered the spread as a 14-point underdog, and the game finished under the 42.5 total at 29 combined points.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes final score and game recap

The first half was a study in momentum swings. Neither team scored in the opening quarter, then both erupted for 10 points in the second to reach halftime tied 10–10. Iowa State took a 13–10 lead in the third quarter and held Iowa scoreless through three. The Hawkeyes broke through in the fourth with six unanswered points to secure the win. Iowa State never scored again after the third quarter.

Who covered the spread in Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes?

Iowa State Cyclones covered the spread as 14-point underdogs, winning the bet despite losing the game. Iowa Hawkeyes, favored by 14, won by only three. The spread held at Iowa Hawkeyes –14 from open to close. AiQ's pick of Iowa Hawkeyes –14 at 59% confidence resulted in a loss.

Did Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes go over or under the total?

The game went under 42.5, finishing at 29 points—13.5 points below the line. Scoring clustered in the second quarter (20 points combined), with only three points in the third and six in the fourth. The total opened at 40.5 and rose two points to 42.5. AiQ's over pick at 42.5 with 62% confidence was a loss.

How did AiQ's Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes predictions do?

AiQ finished 1–2 across graded picks:

The model correctly identified the Hawkeyes to win outright but missed both the spread and total. AiQ overestimated scoring and underestimated Iowa State's ability to stay within the 14-point margin.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Iowa Hawkeyes odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The moneyline closed at Iowa State Cyclones +463 and Iowa Hawkeyes –633, implying an 83% win probability for Iowa after vig removal, with a 4.1% bookmaker margin. The spread remained at Iowa Hawkeyes –14 throughout, and the total moved up two points to 42.5. A $100 wager on the Hawkeyes moneyline returned $115.80. AiQ's pre-game expected value for Iowa Hawkeyes at –650 was –4.7%, indicating an unfavorable price despite the model's 83% confidence in the outcome.

Iowa State Cyclones stand 1–1 overall: 1–0 at home, 0–1 away. Their single spread appearance was a cover, and their only total went under. Iowa Hawkeyes are 2–0 overall and 2–0 at home, with one spread loss and one under result. Both teams have limited data; trends should be treated with caution.

What's next for Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes?

Iowa State hosts Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday, September 19. Iowa Hawkeyes host Northern Iowa Panthers the same day.