Vanderbilt Commodores defeat Mississippi State Bulldogs 25-23: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · NCAAF · Vanderbilt Commodores 25, Mississippi State Bulldogs 23
The Vanderbilt Commodores beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs 25-23 on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Davis Wade Stadium. The Vanderbilt Commodores covered the spread as 3-point underdogs. The game went under the closing total of 48.5, with 48 points combined. AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs final score and game recap
The Vanderbilt Commodores led 3-0 after the first quarter. They won the second quarter 13-0 to lead 16-0 at halftime. The Mississippi State Bulldogs outscored the Vanderbilt Commodores 23-9 in the second half. The Vanderbilt Commodores led at the end of every quarter.
The leading performers, from the box score:
- Jared Curtis (Vanderbilt Commodores): 17/27 passing for 168 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions.
- Sedrick Alexander (Vanderbilt Commodores): 21 carries for 59 yards, 1 rushing touchdown.
- AJ Swann (Mississippi State Bulldogs): 23/36 passing for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception.
- Sanfrisco Magee (Mississippi State Bulldogs): 2 catches for 95 yards, 2 receiving touchdowns.
Who covered the spread in Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs?
The Vanderbilt Commodores covered the spread as 3-point underdogs and won outright, by 2 points.
The spread opened and closed at Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.
Did Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs go over or under the total?
The game went under: 48 points combined against a closing total of 48.5, under by 0.5. 16 of the 48 points came in the first half.
The total opened and closed at 48.5.
How did AiQ's Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs predictions do?
AiQ's moneyline pick in this game lost.
- Moneyline: the Mississippi State Bulldogs to win at -142, a loss (-$100 on a $100 bet).
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs game prop results: team totals, first quarter and first half
AiQ does not pick game props. This is how the sportsbook markets settled.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team total 25.5: the under, paying -113, with 23 scored.
- First-quarter moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores won the first quarter, paying +120.
- First-half moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores won the first half, paying +130.
- Vanderbilt Commodores team total 23.5: the over, paying -104, with 25 scored.
- First-quarter total 9.5: the under, paying +100, with 3 points scored.
- First-half total 23.5: the under, paying +105, with 16 points scored.
- First-half spread: Vanderbilt Commodores +1.5 covered, paying -105.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Shortly before the start, the consensus moneyline had the Vanderbilt Commodores at +124 and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at -148. With the bookmaker's margin removed, that made the Mississippi State Bulldogs a 57% favorite. The Vanderbilt Commodores won as the underdog at +124: $124 profit on a $100 bet. On AiQ's moneyline pick, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the price before the game was -142: priced below fair (−3.9% value).
Vanderbilt Commodores and Mississippi State Bulldogs betting trends: 2026 season
This result left the Vanderbilt Commodores 4-5 in the 2026 regular season (3-2 at home, 1-3 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 4 of 9 games with a closing line on file. Their games went over the closing total 5 times and under 4 times.
This result left the Mississippi State Bulldogs 4-5 in the 2026 regular season (2-3 at home, 2-2 away or at neutral sites). Against the spread, they covered in 4 of 9 games with a closing line on file. Their games went over the closing total 3 times and under 6 times. That made it five straight losses for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
What's next for Vanderbilt Commodores and Mississippi State Bulldogs?
Next for the Vanderbilt Commodores: the Alabama Crimson Tide at home on Saturday, November 14, 2026. Next for the Mississippi State Bulldogs: the Auburn Tigers at home on Saturday, November 14, 2026.