Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks & Odds — Nov 7
Sat, Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium · NCAAF
Open the game card for live odds, every market and the full prediction.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs is on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at Davis Wade Stadium. Averaged over the outcomes the betting lines imply, the projected score is Vanderbilt Commodores 23, Mississippi State Bulldogs 26. That is an average, not a pick.
The story
The Vanderbilt Commodores have won 3 of their 8 games this season, losing the last five. The Mississippi State Bulldogs have won 4 of their 8 games this season, losing the last four. The Vanderbilt Commodores come in with more rest: their last game was on October 24, 14 days before this one, while the Mississippi State Bulldogs played seven days before.
Matchups to watch
- An uphill climb on the ground. The Vanderbilt Commodores averaged 106.1 rushing yards per game this season, the 11th fewest of 138 FBS teams, and the Mississippi State Bulldogs allowed 116.5 rushing yards per game, the 33rd fewest.
Moneyline
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Mississippi State Bulldogs a 57.7% chance to beat Vanderbilt Commodores. AiQ's moneyline pick is the side the consensus favors. The best price, -140 at FanDuel, is priced below the fair price of -136 (−1.1% value).
Total
The betting market, with the margin removed, puts the over 48.5 points at 49.9% and the under at 50.1%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the total. AiQ's projected total, 49.2 points, sits on the 48.5 line.
Spread
The betting market, with the margin removed, gives Vanderbilt Commodores +3 a 50.7% chance to cover and Mississippi State Bulldogs -3 49.3%. That is near a coin flip, and AiQ's read is the market's own, so AiQ has no edge on the spread.
Trends in play
Recent results against the spread back the Vanderbilt Commodores, the underdog here. The Mississippi State Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games.
These come from the closing lines of this season and last. They are context, not the reason for AiQ's picks, and the books price them in.