Arkansas Razorbacks defeat Vanderbilt Commodores 31-21: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Arkansas Razorbacks 31, Vanderbilt Commodores 21
Arkansas Razorbacks won 31–21, covering the +5.5 spread as an underdog. The game went over the 48.5 total, finishing at 52 points.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores final score and game recap
Arkansas Razorbacks 31, Vanderbilt Commodores 21 on Saturday, October 17 at FirstBank Stadium.
Vanderbilt opened with a 7–0 lead but Arkansas tied it 14–14 by halftime. The Razorbacks scored 14 points in both the second and third quarters, building a 28–21 lead after three periods. Arkansas scored 3 points in the fourth quarter to seal the win.
Key performances: KJ Jackson (Arkansas) completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Cam Settles (Arkansas) rushed 11 times for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jared Curtis (Vanderbilt) went 19 of 31 for 274 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Junior Sherrill (Vanderbilt) caught 8 passes for 99 yards and 1 receiving touchdown.
Who covered the spread in Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores?
Arkansas Razorbacks covered as the +5.5 underdog, winning by 10 points. The spread opened at Vanderbilt Commodores –6 and closed at –5.5, a 0.5-point shift toward Arkansas that reflected late betting support for the visiting team.
Did Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores go over or under the total?
The game went over the 48.5 total by 3.5 points, finishing at 52. The total opened at 50 and moved down 1.5 points to 48.5.
How did AiQ's Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores predictions do?
AiQ posted a 6–12 record across all graded picks.
- Moneyline: Picked Vanderbilt Commodores at –220 – LOSS
AiQ's moneyline pick carried a –2.2% negative expected value at –210. The model's 66% confidence estimate matched the market's implied probability (vig removed), but the price offered no edge.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores player prop results
AiQ's player prop record was 6–11, netting –$626.47 on $100 stakes per pick.
- Sedrick Alexander anytime touchdown –190 → 1 → WIN
- KJ Jackson under 216.5 passing yards –112 → 251 → LOSS
- Sedrick Alexander under 40.5 rushing yards –112 → 57 → LOSS
- Chris Marshall anytime touchdown +135 → 0 → LOSS
- Chris Marshall over 87.5 receiving yards –112 → 28 → LOSS
- Sutton Smith under 27.5 rushing yards –112 → 29 → LOSS
- Jared Curtis under 1.5 passing touchdowns –120 → 1 → WIN
- Junior Sherrill over 78.5 receiving yards –112 → 99 → WIN
- Jared Curtis under 236.5 passing yards –112 → 274 → LOSS
- KJ Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns –180 → 0 → WIN
- Chris Marshall over 6.5 receptions –126 → 1 → LOSS
- Junior Sherrill anytime touchdown +105 → 1 → WIN
Arkansas passing yards exceeded projections significantly. Jackson's 251 yards cleared the 216.5 line, and Curtis's 274 yards surpassed 236.5. Rushing yardage props also ran high, with both Sedrick Alexander and Sutton Smith exceeding their under lines. Vanderbilt's receiving props proved more accurate, with Junior Sherrill hitting both his over and anytime touchdown.
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores game prop results: first quarter, first half and team totals
- First-quarter moneyline: Vanderbilt Commodores won the quarter (–140)
- First-half moneyline: Tie, bets refunded
- First-half spread: Arkansas Razorbacks +3.5 covered (–120)
- First-half total 24.5: Over (paid +105) with 28 points scored
- Arkansas Razorbacks team total 21.5: Over (–104) with 31 points
- Vanderbilt Commodores team total 27.5: Under (–120) with 21 points
- First-quarter total 9.5: Under (paid +114) with 7 points scored
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores odds: sportsbook value and line movement
Moneyline: Arkansas Razorbacks +180, Vanderbilt Commodores –220. The sportsbook implied a 34% win probability for Arkansas and 66% for Vanderbilt (vig removed). Arkansas's victory at +180 paid $180 on a $100 wager.
The spread shifted 0.5 points toward Arkansas, reflecting modest late betting support that proved correct as the Razorbacks covered.
Arkansas Razorbacks and Vanderbilt Commodores betting trends: 2026 season
Arkansas Razorbacks sit 3–4 overall: 2–2 at home, 1–2 away/neutral. They are 3–4 against the spread and 2–5 on the over/under (2 overs, 5 unders). Their last five games: W, L, L, W, L.
Vanderbilt Commodores also stand 3–4 overall: 3–2 at home, 0–2 away/neutral. They are 3–4 against the spread and 5–2 on the over/under (5 overs, 2 unders). They have lost four straight games.
What's next for Arkansas Razorbacks and Vanderbilt Commodores?
Arkansas Razorbacks host Missouri Tigers on Saturday, October 31. Vanderbilt Commodores travel to Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, October 24.