Florida Gators defeat Texas Longhorns 27-24: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24
Florida Gators 27, Texas Longhorns 24 – Florida covered the +13.5 spread and the game finished under the 51.5 total.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns final score and game recap
The Gators erased a 7-point halftime deficit to win 27-24 on Saturday, October 17, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas dominated early, scoring 10 in the first quarter and 7 more in the second to lead 17-10 at the break. Florida answered with 10 second-quarter points to close within 7. Florida scored 7 in the third quarter to tie it 17-17 heading into the fourth. The Gators then outscored Texas 10-7 in the final period to secure the upset.
Tramell Jones Jr. completed 22 of 35 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns for Florida. Jadan Baugh rushed 25 times for 91 yards and a touchdown. For Texas, Arch Manning went 14 of 20 for 173 yards and one touchdown, while Emmett Mosley V caught 2 passes for 76 yards.
Who covered the spread in Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns?
Florida Gators covered as a +13.5 underdog. The spread opened at Texas -10.5 and drifted to -13.5 as money moved toward the Longhorns. The Gators' 3-point win beat the closing line.
Did Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns go over or under the total?
The game finished at 51 points, one-half point under the 51.5 total.
How did AiQ's Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns predictions do?
AiQ finished 14-12 across every graded pick.
- Moneyline: Texas Longhorns -530 – LOSS
- Spread: Florida Gators +13.5 – WIN
- Total: Under 51.5 – WIN
- Player props: 14-11 – net +$113.48 on $100 per pick
AiQ correctly identified the spread and total outcomes but missed the moneyline, betting on Texas despite the upset.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 14-11, netting +$113.48.
- Bailey Stockton over 2.5 receptions at -156 – actual 4 – WIN
- Dallas Wilson over 3.5 receptions at -122 – actual 3 – LOSS
- Bailey Stockton over 27.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 31 – WIN
- Dallas Wilson over 43.5 receiving yards at -112 – actual 27 – LOSS
- Dallas Wilson anytime touchdown at +300 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Emmett Mosley V under 43.5 receiving yards at -110 – actual 76 – LOSS
- Arch Manning under 261.5 passing yards at -112 – actual 173 – WIN
- Ryan Wingo anytime touchdown at +120 – actual 0 – LOSS
- Jadan Baugh over 75.5 rushing yards at -112 – actual 91 – WIN
- Jadan Baugh anytime touchdown at -180 – actual 1 – WIN
- Cam Coleman anytime touchdown at +120 – actual 1 – WIN
- Hollywood Smothers under 60.5 rushing yards at -112 – actual 52 – WIN
Bailey Stockton exceeded projections in both receptions and receiving yards, while Dallas Wilson fell short on both reception and yardage targets.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns game prop results: first half, team totals and first quarter
- First-half total 26.5: Over (paid -118); 27 points were scored
- Florida Gators team total 19.5: Over (paid -113); the Gators posted 27 points
- Texas Longhorns team total 32.5: Under (paid -111); Texas finished with 24 points
- First-half moneyline: Texas Longhorns won the first half (paid -360)
- First-quarter moneyline: Texas Longhorns won the first quarter (paid -250)
- First-quarter total 10.5: Under (paid -135); 10 points were recorded
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was Florida Gators +397 and Texas Longhorns -530, implying a 19% win probability for Florida and 81% for Texas after vig removal. The bookmaker's vig was 4.2%. AiQ's pre-game moneyline pick at -440 carried -1.1% expected value, a negative-EV price despite the model's 81% calibrated win probability matching the market's assessment. The spread drifted three points toward Texas, yet the underdog covered, confirming the market's overconfidence in the Longhorns.
Florida Gators and Texas Longhorns betting trends: 2026 season
The Gators sit 5-2 overall, 3-1 at home and 2-1 away/neutral. They are 4-3 against the spread and 4-3 on the over/under in seven games with recorded lines. Their last five results are W, L, L, W, W.
The Longhorns are 4-2 overall, 3-1 at home and 1-1 away/neutral. They are 1-5 against the spread and 2-4 on the over/under in six games with recorded lines. They have lost two straight after winning three in a row.
What's next for Florida Gators and Texas Longhorns?
The Gators travel to face the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, October 31. Texas hosts the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, October 24.