LSU Tigers defeat Mississippi State Bulldogs 31-0: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · NCAAF · Mississippi State Bulldogs 0, LSU Tigers 31
LSU dominated Mississippi State 31-0 on Saturday at Tiger Stadium, covering the -17.5 spread while the game finished well under the 56-point total. The shutout was complete: the Bulldogs never reached the end zone, and AiQ went 15-13 across all graded picks.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers final score and game recap
LSU built a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and extended it to 21-0 by halftime. A third-quarter surge added 10 more points, sealing the victory before the fourth quarter began.
Mississippi State's offense stalled throughout. Quarterback Parker Puckett completed 16 of 26 passes for 121 yards, threw an interception, and failed to score a touchdown. Running back Kolin Wilson carried 18 times for 71 yards but could not generate momentum.
LSU's Sam Leavitt was efficient, completing 31 of 38 attempts for 289 yards and four touchdowns. Wide receiver Jackson Harris caught six passes for 85 yards and two scores, providing the offensive firepower Mississippi State could not match.
Who covered the spread in Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers?
LSU covered the -17.5 spread, winning by 31 points. The line opened at -14 and shifted 3.5 points toward the Tigers as money flowed their way—a move that proved prescient.
Did Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers go over or under the total?
The game finished at 31 points, 25 points under the 56-point closing total. The total had opened at 58 and softened to 56, reflecting expectations of a lower-scoring affair that materialized.
How did AiQ's Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers predictions do?
AiQ finished 15-13 across every graded pick:
- Moneyline: LSU Tigers at -933, a win (+$10.72 on a $100 bet)
- Player props: 14-13 record, net -$28.19 on $100 per pick
Player prop misfires trimmed the overall edge.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers player prop results
AiQ posted a 14-13 record on player props, netting -$28.19 on $100 per pick:
- Sanfrisco Magee under 3.5 receptions at -160; actual 3 — WIN
- Anthony Evans III over 69.5 receiving yards at -116; actual 40 — LOSS
- Jackson Harris anytime touchdown at +170; actual 2 — WIN
- Sanfrisco Magee over 30.5 receiving yards at -112; actual 36 — WIN
- Eugene Wilson III under 29.5 receiving yards at -112; actual 32 — LOSS
- Anthony Evans III over 5.5 receptions at -122; actual 7 — WIN
- Zion Ragins under 2.5 receptions at -128; actual 1 — WIN
- Jackson Harris over 49.5 receiving yards at -112; actual 85 — WIN
- Dilin Jones under 87.5 rushing yards at -112; actual 84 — WIN
- Eugene Wilson III under 3.5 receptions at -146; actual 3 — WIN
- Dilin Jones anytime touchdown at -330; actual 0 — LOSS
- Jackson Harris over 3.5 receptions at +102; actual 6 — WIN
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers game prop results: first quarter, first half and team totals
- First-quarter moneyline: LSU Tigers won the quarter (paid -330)
- First-quarter total 13.5: Over (paid -105); 14 points were scored
- First-half total 29.5: Under (paid -112); 21 points were scored
- First-half moneyline: LSU Tigers won the half (paid -550)
- First-half spread: LSU Tigers -10.5 covered (paid +102)
- LSU Tigers team total 36.5: Under (paid -108); they finished with 31
- Mississippi State Bulldogs team total 19.5: Under (paid -118); they were shut out
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers odds: sportsbook value and line movement
LSU covered the moneyline at -933, delivering a $10.72 profit on a $100 wager. AiQ's pre-game moneyline expectation was calibrated at 88% win probability, matching the market's implied chance. However, the price of -933 represented negative expected value at -900, so the model liked the side but not the price. The spread shifted from -14 to -17.5 as bettors leaned toward LSU, a move that proved correct when the Tigers won by 31.
Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU Tigers betting trends: 2026 season
Mississippi State sits at 4-2 overall, with a 2-1 home record and a 2-1 away/neutral split. They are 4-2 against the spread in six games with a recorded closing spread and split their over/under results evenly at 3-3. They have lost their last two games.
LSU is 5-2 overall, unbeaten at home (5-0) but 0-2 away/neutral. In six games with a closing spread they are 3-3 against the spread, and they are also 3-3 on the over/under.
What's next for Mississippi State Bulldogs and LSU Tigers?
Mississippi State will host the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday, October 24. LSU travels to face the Auburn Tigers on Saturday, October 24.