Kentucky Wildcats defeat LSU Tigers 35-34: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · NCAAF · LSU Tigers 34, Kentucky Wildcats 35
Kentucky Wildcats defeated LSU Tigers 35–34 in overtime at Kroger Field on Saturday, October 10, covering the +9.5 spread. The game finished at 69 points, 18.5 over the 50.5 total.
LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats final score and game recap
The teams traded scoring throughout regulation before forcing overtime. LSU led 10–7 after the first quarter, but Kentucky answered with 14 second-quarter points to take a 21–17 halftime edge. The game remained competitive through the third and fourth quarters, reaching 27–27 and forcing overtime.
In the extra period, LSU scored 7 points to reach 34, and Kentucky scored 8 points to win 35–34.
Sam Leavitt's 275 passing yards and two touchdowns kept LSU competitive. Kenny Minchey managed 246 passing yards for Kentucky without a touchdown. Dilin Jones caught seven passes for 84 yards for LSU; Baxter's rushing output powered the Wildcats' offense.
Who covered the spread in LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats?
Kentucky covered as a +9.5 underdog. LSU opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and the line shifted one point toward LSU (from +8.5 to +9.5) as money moved in that direction. AiQ's spread pick on LSU at –9.5 lost by 10.5 points.
Did LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats go over or under the total?
The game went over, finishing at 69 points—18.5 over the 50.5 line. The total opened at 51.5 and moved down one to 50.5. AiQ's over pick won.
How did AiQ's LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats predictions do?
AiQ finished 16–13 across every graded pick.
- Moneyline: Picked LSU Tigers at –353, result LOSS.
- Spread: Picked LSU Tigers –9.5, result LOSS (Kentucky covered).
- Total: Picked Over 50.5, result WIN.
- Player props: 16–12, net +$317.43 on $100 per pick.
AiQ correctly anticipated the high-scoring nature of the contest but missed the moneyline and spread, underscoring strength in prop modeling versus straight-up outcomes.
LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats player prop results
AiQ's player-prop record was 16–12, netting +$317.43.
- CJ Baxter over 53.5 rushing yards at –116; actual 123 — WIN.
- Kenny Darby over 4.5 receptions at +116; actual 4 — LOSS.
- Kenny Darby over 48.5 receiving yards at –112; actual 79 — WIN.
- Kenny Darby anytime touchdown at +205; actual 0 — LOSS.
- Kenny Minchey over 1.5 passing touchdowns at +192; actual 0 — LOSS.
- Kenny Minchey over 206.5 passing yards at –112; actual 246 — WIN.
- Willie Rodriguez under 38.5 receiving yards at –112; actual 25 — WIN.
- Sam Leavitt over 237.5 passing yards at –112; actual 275 — WIN.
- Henry Boyer anytime touchdown at +550; actual 0 — LOSS.
- CJ Baxter anytime touchdown at +105; actual 2 — WIN.
- Nic Anderson over 22.5 receiving yards at –112; actual 29 — WIN.
- Sam Leavitt over 31.5 rushing yards at –116; actual 39 — WIN.
The prop slate showed strong upside on rushing and receiving yards, while touchdown-related lines underperformed.
LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats game prop results: first half, first quarter and team totals
- First-half moneyline: Kentucky Wildcats won the first half, paying +235.
- First-quarter total 10.5: Over hit, 17 points scored, paying +105.
- LSU Tigers team total 30.5: Over, LSU posted 34, paying –115.
- Kentucky Wildcats team total 20.5: Over, Kentucky posted 35, paying –104.
- First-quarter moneyline: LSU Tigers won the first quarter, paying –280.
- First-half total 25.5: Over, 38 points combined, paying –112.
- First-half spread: Kentucky Wildcats +6.5 covered, paying –110.
LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The closing moneyline was LSU Tigers –353 and Kentucky Wildcats +280, implying a 75% win probability for LSU after vigorish removal. The bookmaker's vig sat at 4.2%. Kentucky's upset paid +280, turning a $100 wager into $280 profit.
AiQ's moneyline expectation was calibrated at 76% for LSU, matching the market. However, the model's recommended price of –345 represented a –1.5% expected value, so the pick lacked value despite the correct probability. The spread moved one point toward LSU, yet Kentucky covered the adjusted +9.5 line.
LSU Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats betting trends: 2026 season
LSU sits 4–2 overall, unbeaten at home (4–0) and winless on the road (0–2). In five games with a recorded spread they are 2–3 against the spread, and in five games with a recorded total they are 3–2 over/under.
Kentucky is 5–1 overall, 3–1 at home and 2–0 away/neutral. They are 5–1 against the spread in six games with a closing spread and 5–1 over/under in six games with a recorded total. They won their fourth straight game with this victory.
What's next for LSU Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats?
LSU travels to face Auburn Tigers on Saturday, October 24.