Baltimore Orioles defeat New York Mets 7-5: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Tue, Sep 15, 2026 · MLB · Baltimore Orioles 7, New York Mets 5

Baltimore Orioles defeated New York Mets 7–5 on Tuesday at Citi Field, covering the +1.5 spread as an outright upset. The game went over the 8-run total, with 12 combined runs scored across regulation and two extra innings.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets final score and game recap

The Mets struck first in the opening inning. Baltimore scored two runs in the second inning, but the Mets also scored in the second, making it 2–2. New York took a 3–2 lead with a run in the third inning. The game remained close through the middle innings before extending into extra innings. Baltimore tied it 3–3 in the ninth inning, and both teams scored in the tenth to make it 4–4. Baltimore's offense exploded in the eleventh, plating three runs to finish the marathon 7–5.

Who covered the spread in Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets?

Baltimore Orioles covered the spread at +1.5. The Mets were favored at -1.5, but the Orioles won outright by two runs, exceeding the line. The spread held steady from open to close. AiQ had backed the Mets at -1.5 with 59% confidence and graded the pick as a loss.

Did Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets go over or under the total?

The game went over the total. Twelve combined runs beat the 8-run line by four. AiQ had backed the over at 58% confidence and earned a win.

How did AiQ's Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets predictions do?

AiQ finished 1–2 on this game.

The model nailed the total but missed both the moneyline and spread, underscoring a gap between its confidence in the Mets' outright win and the actual upset.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Baltimore +112 and New York -134, implying a 45% win probability for the Orioles and 55% for the Mets after vig removal. When Baltimore pulled off the upset, a $100 wager on the Orioles returned $112 profit. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation placed the Orioles at −2.3% at −130, the best price it could find at Fanatics. The model liked the underdog but found the offered price negative-EV. The market's implied 55% chance for New York matched AiQ's calibrated estimate, so the price, not the probability, was the issue.

Baltimore sits at 74–77 overall after 151 games, with a 36–38 home record and 38–39 on the road. In 116 games with a recorded spread, they are 59–57 against the spread and have gone over the total 59 times and finished under 53 times. They have won their last two games.

New York sits at 67–82 after 149 games, posting a 34–42 home mark and 33–40 away. They are 58–60 against the spread in 118 games with a closing line and have gone over 53 times and finished under 54 times. They have lost three straight.

What's next for Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets?

Baltimore hosts Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, September 18. New York welcomes Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, September 17.