Baltimore Orioles defeat New York Mets 2-1: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Mon, Sep 14, 2026 · MLB · Baltimore Orioles 2, New York Mets 1

Baltimore Orioles defeated New York Mets 2–1 on Monday at Citi Field, covering the +1.5 spread as an underdog while the game finished under 8.5.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets final score and game recap

Baltimore scored first in the second inning. The Mets tied the game 1–1 in the fourth inning. The Orioles broke through in the eighth with a go-ahead run, holding on for a 2–1 victory in a low-scoring duel.

Who covered the spread in Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets?

Baltimore Orioles covered the +1.5 spread. As the underdog, they needed to lose by no more than one run or win outright; they won by exactly one run. The spread remained at New York Mets -1.5 from open to close. AiQ's spread pick was New York Mets -1.5 at 59% confidence, graded as a loss.

Did Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets go over or under the total?

The game went under 8.5. Three combined runs left the total 5.5 runs short of the line. The total opened at 8 and moved to 8.5 at close. AiQ's total pick was Over 8.5 at 62% confidence, graded as a loss.

How did AiQ's Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets predictions do?

AiQ went 0–3 on this game.

The model correctly identified the Mets as the favorite but missed both the moneyline upset and the low-scoring nature of the game.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline was Baltimore Orioles +119 and New York Mets -144, implying a 44% chance for the Orioles and 56% for the Mets after removing the vig. The bookmaker's margin was 4.7%. Baltimore's +119 paid $119 on a $100 wager. The result was an upset, as the Orioles were the lower-priced side. AiQ's pre-game expected value calculation used -1.1% at -132, a negative-EV price. The market's implied 56% win probability matched AiQ's calibrated estimate.

Baltimore sits at 73–77 through 150 games, with a 36–38 home record and 37–39 away/neutral record. In 115 games with a recorded closing spread, they are 58–57 against the spread, and they went over the total 58 times and finished under 53 times. Their last five results: W, L, L, W, W.

New York is 67–81 after 148 games, 34–41 at home and 33–40 away/neutral. In 117 spread-recorded games they are 58–59 against the spread, and they went over the total 52 times and finished under 54 times. Their last five results: L, L, W, L, W. They are on a two-game losing streak.

What's next for Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets?

The Orioles host the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, September 18. The Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, September 17.