Miami Marlins defeat Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks
Sat, Sep 12, 2026 · MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers 3, Miami Marlins 4
Miami Marlins 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 3 – Miami covered the +1.5 spread and the total went under 8.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins final score and game recap
The Dodgers scored twice in the first inning at loanDepot park, but the Marlins answered with three runs in the second to take a 3–2 lead. Miami added an insurance run in the fifth and held on for a 4–3 win. No runs were scored after the fifth inning.
Who covered the spread in Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins?
Miami Marlins covered the +1.5 spread. The Dodgers entered as -1.5 favorites but lost outright by one run, giving Miami a 2.5-run beat on the closing line. The spread did not move from open to close.
Did Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins go over or under the total?
The game went under the 8-run total, finishing with 7 combined runs. The total opened at 8.5 and moved down to 8.
How did AiQ's Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins predictions do?
AiQ went 0–3 on this game.
- Moneyline: Los Angeles Dodgers at -170 – LOSS
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 – LOSS
- Total: Over 8 – LOSS
AiQ favored the Dodgers on the moneyline with 59% confidence on the spread and 58% confidence on the over, but the underdog won outright and the game stayed low-scoring.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins odds: sportsbook value and line movement
The Dodgers opened at -170, implying a 60% win probability after vig removal, while the Marlins were +141. The bookmaker's margin on the moneyline was 4.5%. When Miami won, the underdog paid +141, turning a $100 stake into $141 profit. AiQ's pre-game expected value for the Dodgers was –3.9% at -165, a negative-EV price despite the model's confidence in the side. The market's implied 60% probability matched AiQ's calibrated estimate, but the price offered no edge.
Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins betting trends: 2026 season
The Dodgers sit at 90–56 overall, 47–26 at home and 43–30 away. Against the spread in 124 games with a recorded closing line, they are 49–75, a significant underperformance. Their over/under record in those games is 59 overs and 63 unders.
The Marlins are 73–75 overall, 44–32 at home and 29–43 away. In 118 games with a closing spread, they are 62–56, covering more often than not. Their over/under record in those games is 60 overs and 56 unders.
What's next for Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins?
The Dodgers travel to Cincinnati to face the Reds on Thursday, September 17. The Marlins head to San Diego for a game against the Padres on Friday, September 18.