Tampa Bay Rays defeat Houston Astros 3-1: Recap, Betting Results & AiQ Picks

Fri, Sep 11, 2026 · MLB · Houston Astros 1, Tampa Bay Rays 3

Tampa Bay Rays defeated Houston Astros 3-1 on Friday at Tropicana Field, covering the -1.5 spread. The total finished under 7.5.

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays final score and game recap

Miguel Ullola and Drew Rasmussen kept the score blank through three innings. Houston broke through in the fourth with a solo run for a 1-0 lead. Tampa Bay tied it in the fifth. The game remained deadlocked through eight innings before the Rays added two runs in the ninth to seal the victory.

Who covered the spread in Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays?

Tampa Bay Rays covered the -1.5 spread, winning by two runs and beating the line by half a run. The spread held at Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 from open to close. AiQ's pick of Houston Astros +1.5 at 58% confidence lost.

Did Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays go over or under the total?

The game finished under 7.5 with four combined runs. AiQ's selection of Over 7.5 at 58% confidence lost.

How did AiQ's Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays predictions do?

AiQ finished 1-2 across graded picks:

The model correctly identified Tampa Bay as the moneyline winner but missed both the spread and total outcomes.

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays odds: sportsbook value and line movement

The closing moneyline listed Houston Astros +165 and Tampa Bay Rays -199, implying win probabilities of 36% for Houston and 64% for Tampa Bay after removing the 4.3% vigorish. AiQ's pregame expected-value calculation placed Tampa Bay at -2.8% with a -167 price, indicating the model liked the side but found the -199 line negative-EV.

Houston Astros sit at 73-71 through 144 games, with a 35-37 home record and 38-34 away/neutral. Against the spread in 111 games, they are 57-54. Their 111 total-line games went over 54 times and finished under 49 times. Recent results: L, W, L, W, L.

Tampa Bay Rays are 87-58 after 145 contests, with a 48-25 home record and 39-33 away/neutral. Against the spread in 112 games, they are 62-50. Their 112 total-line games went over 49 times and finished under 61 times. Recent results: W, L, W, W, L.

What's next for Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays?

Houston hosts Kansas City Royals on Thursday, September 17. Tampa Bay hosts Athletics on Thursday, September 17.