Spread Record

How to read the spread record

A spread pick is a call on whether a side beats the posted margin: the favorite must win by more than it, and the underdog must lose by less or win. Each row is one league: AiQ's spread picks graded correct, graded incorrect, and the share that were correct. A pick is graded once its game is final; pushes are left out of the share.

These are the graded picks the Record page counts: V1 to V6 picks across all seasons, with picks the V7 engine published kept in a V7 record of their own.

Accuracy is a win rate, not a profit figure. At a price of -110 a pick has to be right 52.4% of the time to break even. The V7 record shows units won or lost at the price recorded with each pick.

AiQ's picks come from two engines. V7 starts from the betting market: its moneyline pick is the side the sportsbooks' consensus favors once their margin is removed, and when too few books post a moneyline it works from the consensus spread and total instead. On a spread or total, V7 names a side only when its model sits at least 2 percentage points off the market and a book prices the line; otherwise that market shows no pick and says why.

V6 asks a language model for each pick and a confidence rating. The rating is the model's own number, not a probability and not a market price. Before a V6 pick is given a value, the rating is calibrated against graded results, and against the market when both sides of the bet are quoted.

Value is a pick's expected return at the better of the consensus price and the best sportsbook price on record, judged at the pick's fair chance: the market consensus for V7, the calibrated figure for V6. A likely winner at a short price can still be poor value. V7 covers some sports and V6 the rest, and the split changes as V7 rolls out.